U.S. Embassy in Seoul.
Since I held honorary U.S. citizenship, I was able to enter the embassy after only a minimal set of procedures.
"Ambassador Chris, it's been a while."
"I sincerely apologize for summoning such a busy person to the embassy. But the matter is so urgent, we had no choice."
"If you say it's urgent, are you referring to the situation in the U.S. real estate market? I've heard about the mortgage companies going bankrupt one after another."
"Yes. Things are unfolding quite differently from what the Federal Reserve has claimed."
Ambassador Chris appeared to have a different perspective than that of the U.S. government or the Fed.
Perhaps that was because, living in Korea rather than the U.S., he was able to analyze the
situation more objectively.
"You don't seem to believe the Fed's optimism."
"To be honest, I want to believe them. But the situation is simply too dire for blind optimism. And quite a few officials in the White House share my concerns."
So even the White House was beginning to split on its view of things.
Previously, the White House had simply followed the Fed's lead, but as delinquency rates rose and mortgage companies began collapsing, doubts about the Fed's stance had started to grow.
"But what can we actually do? Unless the Fed Chair or the President takes direct action, nothing is going to change."
"The Fed intends to maintain its current policy direction."
"Even if they cut interest rates now, it's unclear whether things will improve—but if they maintain the current stance, things will certainly get worse."
"...Would you consider speaking to the President directly?"
"I already did, a few months ago. But at the time, he had absolute faith in the Fed."
As the U.S. ambassador to South Korea, Chris held a fairly high position—even within the White House hierarchy.
That didn't mean he had access to everything, however, and it seemed he wasn't aware that I had already met with President Bush.
"I'm aware you had a meeting with him previously. But the situation has changed quite a bit since then. Perhaps that's why the President himself has expressed interest in meeting with you again."
"President Bush said that himself?"
They were already reaching out?
I had assumed President Bush wouldn't come looking for me until the second half of next year. But to think they'd already be sending an SOS signal...
"If President Bush is calling for me, of course I'll head to the U.S. When should I depart?"
"Not right away. He's hoping to arrange the meeting for early next year. It will include officials from the Treasury Department and members of the Federal Reserve Board."
"Will it be an unofficial meeting?"
"Yes, he's hoping for a more informal setting where you can speak freely."
That was clear evidence that the White House was beginning to shake.
Until recently, they had put absolute faith in the Fed, but things weren't unfolding as optimistically as they'd hoped.
So now, they were willing to hear dissenting voices—like mine—in person, with everyone
present.
"Then I'll head to Washington early next year. But this time, I'd prefer it if they didn't greet me in the middle of the road."
"...I'll be sure to pass that along."
Ambassador Chris bowed his head slightly, looking a little embarrassed.
Of course, it wasn't really his fault, so I didn't intend to blame him.
"Now that we've covered the important matters, may I speak a bit more casually?"
"Whew… Yes, let me have a glass of water, too. Honestly, I have no idea where the world is
headed anymore."
We both relaxed in our seats.
With a single glass of water, the heavy atmosphere lifted, and I raised my voice half an octave as I continued.
"By the way, do you own any real estate or stocks? I highly recommend you liquidate everything before the year is over. And I'm not saying this as the Vice Chairman of Taewoo Group."
"Is that coming from someone speaking in the capacity of SAVE Investment—one of the top performers on Wall Street? Hmm… I do own a few properties, and I've put money into some
funds…"
"If you plan on holding onto the real estate for 20 years or more, that's one thing. But otherwise, sell it all. As for your stocks, unless they're in IT-related funds, I strongly advise you to pull out and hold cash instead."
This wasn't a one-time conversation.
Ambassador Chris still had plenty of time left in his post, so I decided to help him with some
personal financial consulting.
"I understand the real estate part… but do I really need to sell all my stocks too?"
"Most stocks are going to take a steep dive. That said, IT-related stocks—while they may drop— are likely to rebound within a few years, so you can hold on to those. That's the investment strategy SAVE is following as well."
"Goodness… You really are predicting a dire situation."
"This isn't a prediction. It's already dire. The only question left is whether the bomb goes off
during this president's term or the next."
"······."
Ambassador Chris fell silent, unable to respond further.
Well, I had spoken bluntly enough—he'd take care of things accordingly.
***
December 31st, 2006.
I was packing my things in the room for my business trip to the U.S.
It wasn't until I had filled an entire suitcase and finally straightened my back that I noticed my grandfather standing there, watching me.
"Why are you just standing there like that? You could've at least made your presence known."
"I was just watching your back. It looked so dependable that I didn't want to interrupt. Let me sit down for a bit."
Grandfather sat on the edge of the bed.
I took the seat across from him and waited for him to speak.
"Is something worrying you?"
"At my age, what do I have to worry about? If there's anything, it's you."
"You're worried about me?"
"I've been briefed enough to understand the general situation. This trip to the U.S. is to respond to the looming economic crisis, is that right?"
"The situation is too serious to handle from Korea. I plan to go and deal with it directly from
there."
My grandfather looked at me with deep concern in his eyes.
To him, I probably still looked like a child.
"Don't put yourself out there too much. You know what they say—'the protruding nail gets
hammered down.'"
"I'll be as restrained as I can. I just want to make sure Taewoo Group isn't harmed."
"You? Acting restrained? You've gotten better at lying with age."
Grandfather immediately saw through my words.
I had only said that to ease his worries, but in truth, I planned to involve myself in this crisis quite actively.
"For Taewoo Group to grow into a global powerhouse, this is a necessary step."
"That's exactly why I'm not stopping you. But do you truly believe a global financial crisis is
coming? I still have my doubts."
"It's inevitable. That's why I'm going to the U.S. By the time this trip is over, Taewoo Group will be in a position no one can touch."
"That's a very sweet thing to say. Well then, have a safe trip. While you're gone, I'll take care of Taewoo Group."
Grandfather stood up and patted my shoulder.
But I didn't intend to just make him happy with sweet words.
I planned to return to Korea carrying hundreds of such sweet fruits.
Each one worth hundreds of billions of won.
I spent the first day of 2007 on the plane.
When I arrived at the airport, I saw people full of excitement and hope for the new year.
But I had no time to feel such happiness; I immediately got into the waiting car and headed to SAVE Investment Company.
"Have you arrived, sir?"
"How are things unfolding?"
Despite the late hour, everyone was still at their posts.
Team Leader Han was at the center, directing SAVE Investment Company's operations.
"It's moving very rapidly. We just received information that HSBC, Europe's largest bank, is
about to announce that its subprime mortgage losses are expected to exceed $10 billion."
"The signal flare has finally been fired."
HSBC was the first to sound the alarm on the subprime mortgage crisis.
The moment Europe's largest financial institution stepped forward to warn about the severity of the subprime mortgage crisis, the global economic crisis had become a reality.
Nothing had changed this life either.
HSBC had fired the signal flare.
"And we have information that New Century, the second largest mortgage company in the U.S., is on the brink of filing for bankruptcy. It is expected to file no later than the first half of this year."
"Up to now, small dominoes have been falling. Now, the big dominoes are starting to topple."
"But the Fed still isn't moving. It seems they are clinging to optimism."
Whether it was stubbornness or arrogance, the Fed was still holding to its stance.
"They seem to be trying to forcibly suppress the explosion. But the more pressure they apply, the harder it will explode."
"We're also getting frequent calls from insurance companies. They're even asking if we want to cancel our derivative insurance contracts."
"That must have felt good."
"To be honest, it did feel a little good. When I first inquired about buying insurance, they treated me like a sucker. But when I met with them this time, they bowed their heads deeply."
In Wall Street's financial circles, Team Leader Han had a reputation as a sucker.
Because he paid enormous insurance premiums every month, companies competed fiercely to
sign insurance contracts with him.
But now the situation had changed, and they must have realized that the real suckers were
themselves, not Team Leader Han.
"You didn't actually cancel the insurance contracts, did you?"
"The rating agencies still maintain the subprime mortgage bonds at AAA rating, so they
wondered why we were acting like this."
"Those rating agencies are really ruthless. They still haven't downgraded the subprime mortgage bond ratings."
"That's why there's so much talk. Apparently, groups who also purchased subprime mortgage insurance products collectively protested to the rating agencies."
We weren't the only ones betting on subprime mortgages.
Of course, it was true that we and the fintech bank were the largest holders betting on them, but other funds and groups who read the flow had also placed bets.
But their situation was very different from ours.
We had enough cash to pay huge insurance premiums every month.
They, however, felt huge pressure from the monthly premiums and were anxiously waiting for the insurance conditions to be triggered.
"Try approaching them. Offer to cover part of their insurance premiums in exchange for some rights on their insurance contracts."
"I'm not sure it's necessary. Compared to the insurance we and the fintech bank hold, their
amounts are insignificant."
"To take control, we need to hold as many insurance certificates as possible. If they refuse, don't push. Just try casually and see what happens."
While we were deep in conversation,
David burst into the conference room hurriedly.
"Boss! There's a call from Washington. They want to meet tomorrow."
"Then we have to get on a plane right now. No time to adjust for jet lag."
"I've already prepared everything. You can leave immediately."
I was very excited.
I was already eager to hear what nonsense the White House officials and the Fed would spout.
The more nonsense they made, the more profit I could gain, so I hoped they would bark loudly as
I headed to Washington.