"Those small association awards can be ignored..."
Sitting in a single armchair, Panny Kallis spoke seriously to Duke, Scarlett, and Nancy Josephson. "The New York Film Critics Circle Award, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award, and the National Society of Film Critics Award—these three Best Actress awards do carry weight."
"Even if we manage an early release," Duke shook his head, "it's still very unlikely for Scarlett to win these three awards that are presented in December."
To be precise, there's basically no chance Scarlett would be completely dragged down by him.
Although with the passing of older, renowned critics like Roger Ebert, and in this era where seemingly everyone is a film critic, Duke's conflict with professional critics is no longer as sharp as it once was, the idea of reaping anything from critics' awards remains essentially a daydream.
That said, he doesn't care much about those three awards anyway. Even among Oscar precursor awards, some matter more than others.
"On the 30th of last month,"
The always-silent Nancy Josephson finally spoke, "The Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes have both announced their nomination lists. You and Scarlett are both nominated in individual categories."
No sooner had she finished than Panny Kallis followed up, "Forget the Golden Globes. We should focus all our resources on the three major guild awards. There's still a month until the Oscar nomination list is announced we have enough time to work things out."
Although, according to Academy regulations, all campaigning must stop once the Oscar nominations are announced, very few truly adhere to that rule. But it's true that certain actions become less convenient.
Duke looked at Scarlett, then nodded to Panny Kallis. "The precursor strategy will focus on the three major guilds. Forget the Golden Globes."
Having been in Hollywood for so many years, Duke understood clearly: with the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globes having released their nominations, the North American awards season is now in full swing. From early October to the final utterance of "And the Oscar goes to…" the following year, countless awards emerge in various forms. If you want to laugh last at the Oscars, you must first recognize which awards have true value those capable of influencing the future through their status and credibility and which are merely sycophantic, chasing after the golden statue to gain clout.
If you want to achieve anything during awards season, the saying from across the ocean "right time, right place, right people" is absolutely essential.
And among those three elements, the foremost is "timing." Whether it's an indie at Sundance, a summer blockbuster, or an awards-season arthouse film, everyone wants a piece of the Oscar pie.
However, most of the "overworked" Oscar voters simply don't have time to watch every single film. That makes the release timing crucial for standing out from hundreds of DVD screeners.
That's why most "awards-season films" opt for release between November and December right before Oscar nomination voting begins. To borrow a phrase from across the ocean: the closer to the water, the sooner one gets the moon!
Looking over the past 15 years of Best Picture winners, only Saving Private Ryan and Gladiator opened outside the awards-season window.
Next comes "place." Compared to other precursor awards, only the "critics association awards" are the most geographically grounded.
Around awards season every year, critic groups from major cities across North America gather to select their personal Best of the Year lists. Among the countless "association awards," only three truly carry reference value: the New York Film Critics Circle Award, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award, and the National Society of Film Critics Award.
The first two need no elaboration. New York boasts the artsy, highbrow atmosphere of NYC and is the oldest critics award in the U.S.; LA sits at the heart of the entire film industry and often reflects part of the insider consensus.
Then there's the National Society of Film Critics, famous for its unconventional picks. It uses its unique taste to give lesser-known films a helpful push.
As for the well-known, intimidating-sounding "Critics' Choice Awards," its actual influence in the industry is minimal. Unlike the professional critics associations above, it's hosted by the Broadcast Film Critics Association a group made up of reporters from across the country and a few critics whose goal is, plainly speaking, to boost their own credibility by branding themselves as Oscar predictors.
The above two points are critical, but the most important lies in "people."
That is the guild awards: recognition from within the industry!
Anyone with a basic understanding of how the Oscars are awarded knows that earning recognition from peers within your profession is the most crucial factor. In this regard, the directors', writers', producers', and actors' guild awards speak volumes.
If the "critics association awards" can influence Oscar voters when sorting through stacks of screeners, then the guild awards are the ones that can truly be called the "Oscar barometers."
The reason is simple: the voters of the guild awards are the top professionals across all stages of filmmaking, and their expert opinions in their respective fields carry serious weight. More importantly, the voters of the guild awards and the Oscar voters significantly overlap.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards known for having the lowest voting threshold and the grandest ceremony have correctly "predicted" Oscar acting awards 57 times since its founding in 1995. Over the past 10 years, the overlap rate with the Oscars is a whopping 92%. Meanwhile, the Producers Guild's Best Picture winner has matched the Academy's pick for 11 consecutive years.
Numbers don't lie they're the best proof. The major guild awards are the true Oscar barometers.
Now let's talk about the Golden Globes.
This most publicly known so-called "Oscar barometer" is barely taken seriously within the industry.
The Golden Globes are hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which has no actual connection with the Academy. Put nicely, it's the consensus of the association of foreign journalists stationed in Hollywood; put bluntly, it's a party thrown by a bunch of fringe reporters wanting to have dinner with movie stars grandly calling themselves the "Oscar barometer." To boost their accuracy, they even split awards into "Drama" and "Comedy/Musical" categories.
But in truth, their chances of "guessing" the Oscar winners are lower than Duke flipping a coin with his eyes closed.
Of course, if you take it as a warm-up comedy gala before the Oscars, it's still quite entertaining.
After a few more minutes of discussion about the main awards that serve as indicators of the final outcome, Panny Kallis brought up one of the strongest advantages the other side possessed. "Among the people I've spoken to, many hold a favorable impression of Natalie Portman. On the one hand, it's due to the good image she's cultivated over the years; on the other, her performance in Black Swan is truly stunning. On top of that, she's pregnant, and that has affected a lot of people's perceptions."
Whether Duke admits it or not, that's undeniably one of Natalie Portman's strengths.
Moreover, ever since the nominations were announced for the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Golden Globes, Natalie Portman has significantly increased her media exposure. Her pregnant figure has been appearing frequently in many media outlets and television shows.
This is undoubtedly Natalie Portman's trump card.
However, from the moment he got the relevant information, Duke had already begun considering some solutions. Perhaps they couldn't completely negate the sympathy points she would gain, but they could at least have some effect.
He gave a subtle glance toward Tina Fey, who picked up two document folders and handed them respectively to Panny Kallis and Nancy Josephson.
"These are materials on Benjamin Millepied's ex-girlfriend. My people have already made contact with her." Only when Duke saw them open the folders did he continue, "She's a Broadway actress who lost to Natalie Portman in the love battle. It's said the key reason Benjamin Millepied chose Natalie Portman over her was because Natalie was pregnant."
As she listened to Duke's words while flipping through the materials, Panny Kallis's eyes gradually lit up. "A Broadway actress? With ambition and career goals, looking to transition into Hollywood?"
She suddenly laughed. "There's a lot we can do. I just hope she has the desire."
Closing the folder, Panny Kallis exchanged a few opinions with Nancy Josephson and then said to Duke, "Leave this matter to me."
Duke nodded, then said to Nancy Josephson, "Any materials that come from Natalie Portman's side should be forwarded directly to Panny from now on."
From quite early on, Duke had been making targeted preparations. Although the film wouldn't be officially released until the end of the year, the relevant work had already begun long ago.
In past Oscars, perhaps the major studios only focused on campaigning for the awards themselves, but since the start of the new century, while promoting themselves, many also began discrediting their competitors. For example, one of the producers of last year's Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker kept calling Academy voters and forwarding emails that belittled and attacked Avatar…
The Academy's rules prohibit campaigning tactics that disparage rivals in order to elevate oneself, but perhaps fifteen years ago people might still have followed that. Nowadays, using media and other channels to smear opponents has become increasingly common.
In reality, no one can offer solid evidence to prove exactly where those disparaging articles in the media come from.
There's only one month left until the Academy announces the Oscar nomination list. Film studios intending to compete have all stepped up their publicity and campaigning efforts, and many aggressive and defamatory pieces have emerged. As one of the most highly acclaimed and popular films, Gravity has inevitably been swept into the storm.