Chapter 602: A Conversation Between Husband and Wife
In Ernst's previous life, the rubber plantation industry had always been lukewarm. This was mostly due to environmental limitations. In other words, this type of cash crop was "finicky" and hard to manage, with high regional dependency and considerable risk.
Yet the market demand was immense and consistently outpaced supply. Ernst believed that even if rubber plantation scales were increased tenfold, the market could still absorb it all, due to rubber's exceptional properties and its potential to substitute for many other materials.
Karina found Ernst's thinking very unorthodox yet fascinating. She said, "Even just the tire business alone seems like it could be huge. After all, these hollow pneumatic tires could be used on many kinds of vehicles. Even if all carriages were refitted with them, the numbers would be astronomical."
Ernst gently squeezed Karina's hand and said, "Naturally. In the future, these hollow pneumatic tires will likely become the mainstream choice for vehicles. They're easy to replace and repair, improve vehicle stability, and enhance comfort—so many advantages. And with the sheer number of carriages in Europe, this one segment alone represents enormous economic potential. Although cars will eventually replace carriages, that transition may take at least thirty years."
Ernst's timeline was actually quite conservative. Even in the 21st century, animal-powered vehicles hadn't been completely phased out. In many countries, the number of automobiles per capita was still very low. In some parts of Africa, even an eighteenth-hand car could serve as a taxi.
Of course, Ernst was mainly referring to rural areas. When he worked in Africa, urban centers were filled with cars.
But that was only on the surface—most foreigners working in Africa were based in cities. Africa's urbanization rate was extremely low, with the vast majority of people living in rural areas, and some even in tribal communities in primitive societal structures.
However, many people in the Far East Empire still held deeply ingrained stereotypes about Africa. Measured strictly by GDP, many African nations actually fared better than parts of Southeast Asia. South America, too, wasn't far ahead—both regions were roughly comparable. The perception that South America was wealthier might stem from Brazil's presence as a massive state. By contrast, Africa's largest economy, Nigeria, was smaller than Brazil in territory but had a similar population—just over 200 million in both cases.
Karina was happy to hear Ernst agree with her and asked, "So, when do you think cars will replace carriages and become common on the streets?"
Ernst pondered for a moment. East Africa was hard to predict—offering a projection might seem a bit arrogant. But he could estimate based on his previous life.
"Europe and the U.S. should adopt cars more quickly. I think by the 1920s, you'll start seeing them in major cities, especially in the leading industrial nations," Ernst replied.
Karina, however, wasn't entirely satisfied. As the Crown Princess of East Africa, she was more interested in Ernst's predictions for their own country.
"What about us in East Africa, darling?"
Seeing her curiosity, Ernst continued, "If an industry develops for thirty to forty years, it should mature. East Africa has seized the opportunity and gotten a head start in the automotive sector, so I believe we'll develop fairly well—maybe even surpass some European countries."
"So what's the exact timeline?"
Ernst raised his eyebrows and replied helplessly, "If I knew the exact date, I wouldn't be human. But given East Africa's unique economic situation, the early development of the automotive sector should progress quite rapidly."
East Africa's economy had many constraints and wasn't suited for diversified development. However, it had access to large amounts of resources and strong coordination abilities—making it ideal for mass production. Plus, 19th-century consumers didn't care much about aesthetics. They prioritized quality in industrial goods, which created a favorable market environment.
East African enterprises generally didn't cut corners—that was a feature of the public ownership system. Of course, the world wasn't black and white. Shoddy practices still occurred, but most of them resulted from careless workers rather than systemic fraud.
"I'm planning to build a few factories along the coast specifically for automobile manufacturing. Some factories in Europe are already set up, and we've secured many parts suppliers. So, East Africa is a step behind Germany—but that's inevitable. Our industrial base is much weaker than theirs, so we have to progress step by step."
Karina asked, "Then why not build the factories in Mbeya? Didn't you say it has the strongest industrial base in all of East Africa?"
Although she was the Crown Princess, Karina was well informed about East Africa's national conditions. Unlike in Europe, there weren't many noble families or social obligations, so she sometimes helped Ernst review documents.
"You're absolutely right," Ernst said. "But the auto industry is broad, and many of the components we need must be imported from Europe. Coastal locations have a geographic advantage for that. Mbeya can still be involved—mainly in supplying specific parts, like tires. That's where Mbeya excels."
As for expanding automobile manufacturing inland, that would have to wait until East Africa had its own design and R&D capabilities. For now, it had to rely on technology spillover from Germany to get a foothold in the industry. Detaching from German companies and developing independently would be very difficult and would involve many missteps.
Without professionals, there was no innovation. Even if the East African auto industry were copied wholesale from Germany, it would only be a temporary solution and a huge waste of resources. It made more sense to stay on the coast for now—facilitating technical collaboration with Germany. Once the time was right, inland factories could follow.
"Besides, I have other plans. You've only seen the car prototype, but I'm actually more interested in two other vehicle types: tractors and trucks. These will be just as important for East Africa's agriculture and industry as railroads. Cars are a bit flashy and impractical for now."
Karina had heard of tractors—steam-powered ones were trendy in Europe, mostly due to the lack of better alternatives. But she had no concept of trucks, so she asked, "What's a truck?"
"You can think of it as a larger version of a car—or imagine a wagon with a cargo bed. Passenger carriages are luxurious with compartments, but freight wagons are much simpler. A truck serves a similar function, but it's powered like a car. Just refuel it, and it can carry heavy loads. While it can't match railroads in capacity, it's more flexible—no need for tracks, it can run on flat ground, and it's highly useful in military logistics too. It can transport soldiers, weapons, and supplies. In short, it's extremely important."
Karina now had a rough idea. But she'd only truly understand once an actual truck was built. Tractors were easier to visualize—the steam ones already looked similar to what modern tractors would become.
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