I kept turning over the plot of the Night of the Black Knives. So, in a half-delirious burst of inspiration, I jotted down this messy analysis.
Since the game leaves so many gaps in the story, as someone writing a fanfiction, I have no choice but to fill them in myself.
⚠️ A heads-up before reading: Please don't take this as a super serious, airtight theory. At best, I've strung together a few clues that could explain things, but nothing here is decisive proof. I wrote this while sleep-deprived, so the order of evidence might be scrambled. If you can, I recommend reading it through once, then circling back to discuss the details with me afterwards — let's brainstorm together. (Either way, please don't flame me, I'm fragile .·°՞(˃ ᗝ ˂)՞°·.).
First of all, a lot of old theories don't work anymore — like the one claiming that killing Godwyn somehow benefited him.
Why? Because those ideas all stemmed from the assumption that Marika herself was involved in the Night of the Black Knives, and built further on top of that.
But now, with the DLC expanding Marika's backstory and showing more of her character before becoming a god, those earlier assumptions really need rethinking.
So, when we talk about the Night of the Black Knives, we need to first establish one thing:
Ranni was the mastermind, but she definitely wasn't the only one.
And the reason is simple — from what we see in the game, Ranni just didn't have the ability to pull off something so huge all by herself.
Yes, she's ambitious (and yes, she's my waifu), but come on, her resources and connections were limited.
Take the Black Knife Assassins for example. Where did she even get them?
The text only tells us they were Marika's kin — the Numen — but we also know that the Numen aren't exactly rare in the Lands Between. The Eternal cities produced descendants in droves; there are plenty of them around. You can't just say "they're Numen, so they all must belong to Marika."
Radagon, as a half-body, counts as Numen. The Carian royal family also descends from the Eternals (their crest is basically a modified Eternal City sigil). All the demigods share Numen blood too, whether you acknowledge the Carian branch or not — after all, they're all born of Marika or Radagon.
So maybe the Black Knives were originally a special unit among the Numen. Their armor and invisibility techniques could easily trace back to the Nox dynasty (Unseen Form, anyone?).
This would mean there were multiple factions of Black Knives, each serving a different master.
For instance:
Marika clearly had some under her command (they're still guarding her door, even now).
The Fingers Ranni sought to kill might have controlled another group.
And then, the last group? We find them at the Ordina, Liturgical Town, outside the Haligtree.
Here's where my wildest guess comes in (and I might not even put this into the fanfic, but here's the train of thought):
👉 My conclusion: Another faction involved in the Night of the Black Knives was Miquella. And Marika, most likely, had no hand in it at all.
Before the DLC, people assumed Godwyn was Miquella's chosen heir. But the DLC makes it clear: Radahn was Miquella's true candidate for king, and had been since childhood, without ever wavering.
This leaves Godwyn in a very awkward position.
In terms of achievements and legitimacy, if the Shattering hadn't broken out, he would've been the strongest candidate for the throne.
But if Miquella wanted to establish his own order — to fulfill his dream, or to cure Malenia's rot — he had to go his own way.
Would Godwyn "the Golden" really allow the Haligtree, or Miquella's new law, to replace the Erdtree?
From the base game's story, we know Miquella hoped Godwyn would "die properly." But that doesn't clear his name from suspicion.
Miquella is someone who was willing to discard even half his own body — the side that represented humanity — for the sake of his ideals. So why not sacrifice a brother and friend if it furthered his goals?
Besides, what's more useful to him than a soulless but intact body? That's much better than Mohg's rotting corpse.
So Ranni using part of the Rune of Death was no issue at all — in fact, it's almost like they struck a deal:
Ranni kills the body to escape the Fingers.
Miquella gains the body for his own purposes. (Of course, Miquella wouldn't have revealed his plan to later betray Radahn).
Too bad the Erdtree "cared" so much for Godwyn that it twisted him into an aberration.
No wonder Miquella apologized to his brother/friend; ("If I'd known it would end like this…") He only wished Godwyn could have died properly.
But whether or not he regretted Godwyn's pain, the end goal was achieved: an obstacle was removed.
So, on the matter of killing Godwyn, Ranni and Miquella's interests aligned.
Now, about stealing the Rune of Death — assuming the demigods couldn't overpower Maliketh's Black Blade — there are only three possible methods:
The cut content "demigod-drunken wine" — not canon, but maybe useful for a novel plot. It was tied to St. Trina's crystal ball and the mist of deep sleep.
Miquella's charm — but Maliketh doesn't look like someone who could be charmed, so this seems unlikely.
St. Trina's sleep magic — much more plausible. Even diluted nectar, brewed by outsiders like Shabriri, can put ancient dragons to sleep. If St. Trina herself used it, briefly putting Maliketh under wouldn't be impossible.
That's three methods — and all of them tie back to Miquella or Trina.
And remember when Ranni first appears and puts Blaidd to sleep in a mist? That also looks suspiciously like St. Trina's technique. If they were collaborators, or at least friends, it makes sense she'd learn it.
And what about Blaidd himself? The game says once a beast knight is bonded to a master, they can't betray them — but he did betray Ranni. Could it be Miquella's charm at work, planting Blaidd as a spy?
When the truth came out, neither Ranni nor Iji stopped him. That suggests the betrayal was real. Iji only sealed him away, maybe out of pity for their past bond. If Miquella's charm could sway even a sworn beast knight, then it all fits.
There's also the Spirit Calling Bell Ranni gives us. The lore says it was passed down by Torrent's former master. Right now, the strongest candidate for that master is Miquella. He was certainly capable of summoning spirits — just ask Radahn.
As for how Melina ends up bringing Torrent, my guess is that Miquella abandoned both the steed and Trina. Melina and Ranni simply became their new bearers.
The timeline is fuzzy, yes. But then again, the DLC itself muddles chronology — like how it calls both the boar knights and Messmer "Radahn's elder brothers." So maybe we shouldn't stress too much over timing.
In the end:
Ranni abandoned her body to escape the Fingers.
Miquella gained what he wanted.
And if Miquella's own Fingers were compromised — possibly even charmed — then his plan was safe.
From his perspective, Ranni, Radahn, and even Rykard were all already "in his camp." If two of the siblings were allies, what could Rykard really say?
(Rykard, off to the side: "…You already know what I'm going to say. What can I say? Together!")
During the Shattering, the Carian forces and the Haligtree were clearly allied, storming Leyndell side by side. Their victory seemed inevitable…
Until the Omen brothers changed everything. One held the line, and the other outright abducted Miquella himself.
Sure, Miquella later charmed Mohg, but the damage to his plan was already done.
This all ties neatly into the DLC.
But the biggest hole in my theory is this: why did Marika suddenly shatter the Ring?
The only explanation I can think of is that, in the moment of Godwyn's death, she finally realized the Greater Will was just the Two Fingers' Mother. Or perhaps Radagon did something behind the scenes.
For now, though, that's beyond my focus. I'll leave that for the lore experts to untangle. My scope here is just the Night of the Black Knives.
If my forward logic isn't convincing enough, we can try reverse reasoning.
Who even could have participated in the Night? Basically, all the demigods, plus Marika and Radagon.
Radahn and Rykard never show connections to the Black Knives, and they're more straightforward (Rykard at least raised a proper army instead of scheming).
Messmer, Melina, Morgott, and Mohg were all missing or cut off.
Marika, as we now see her in the DLC, doesn't seem like someone who'd do it. She even blessed a forsaken child like Messmer instead of killing him. If she really wanted someone dead, she'd have killed him first.
She endured her kin being butchered by the Omens, bore two cursed children, and still didn't kill them. Compared to Godfrey's cruelty toward Morgott, Marika comes across as surprisingly gentle.
Godwyn himself? No. He lost nothing by staying alive as heir to the Golden Order.
Radagon? Absolutely not — he was obsessed with the Golden Order and wanted Godwyn as heir.
That leaves only the two siblings of the Haligtree.
They had the motive, the means, and the assassins.
And that's where I'll leave it for today. Honestly, this was just a spur-of-the-moment brainstorm, and I feel like I've already pulled every clue I could find. Time to finally sleep… (´□`」 ∠ )
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[T/N: Credits to the Author's Big-Brain Theory]