Lionel analyzed slowly and methodically:
"Firstly, as you just enumerated, there are quite a number of such 'marginal writers.'
Even without me, Lionel Sorel, they would still have to contend with Daudet and other more renowned authors.
How much would the probability of being selected increase for any of them if they eliminated just me? Infinitesimal.
To take such a risk, inciting Le Gaulois to spread rumors, the investment and the return are completely disproportionate."
Lionel extended a second finger:
"Secondly, and more importantly, the statement 'Lionel has a chance to be selected' is very specific.
While the compilation committee's preliminary discussion list cannot be called top secret, it is certainly not something a struggling writer could easily know.
For him to know that Count Rohan is inclined to recommend me would require a very internal source of information. How likely is it for an outsider to possess such crucial inside information?"
Lionel's two questions, like cold water, extinguished the fervor of condemnation that had just ignited among the crowd.
A silence fell upon the living room.
Huysmans frowned, clearly realizing the flaw in his own speculation.
Maupassant scratched his big beard, looking perplexed:
"So... who could it be? Someone who wishes you ill, and also has the ability to get internal information...
Good heavens, that sounds like the machinations of those bureaucrats in our ministry!"
Lionel smiled faintly, put down his wine glass, and said in a playful tone,
"Perhaps we can play this game with a different approach.
Let's not view it as a personal defamation against me with unknown motives. Let's view it... as a murder case."
Several people showed expressions of interest, saying in unison,
"A murder case?"
Lionel's gaze held a hint of cunning:
"Yes, let's assume that rumor is the 'murder weapon,' and I am the 'corpse.'
So, how do we find the murderer?"
He first looked at Zola, who mused,
"Search for the motive... if you 'died,' who would benefit?"
Lionel snapped his fingers:
"Exactly! Who benefits? Émile, you've hit on the key. When we can't find an obvious culprit, let's look at who, in this incident, might not be the most suspected, but who ultimately gains the most?
Often, the answer is hidden there."
He successfully guided everyone's thoughts from "who hates me" to "who profits from my downfall."
This was, naturally, a more macroscopic and truth-approaching perspective.
The atmosphere in the living room became more focused; this "deduction game" proposed by Lionel instantly ignited the writers' imaginations.
Huysmans was the first to follow the line of thought:
"Beneficiaries... If you were completely excluded from the 'French Reader' due to scandal, or even had your reputation damaged, who would benefit?
Other great authors who are certain to be selected? Like Mr. Hugo? No, his status doesn't need to be consolidated by excluding you.
Daudet? He's as upright as a birch tree, not that kind of person at all... and this wouldn't significantly impact his interests."
Alexis then speculated:
"Or perhaps some ideological opponents? Those ultra-conservatives? They hate your support for education reform, they hate that your 'Choir' stole the limelight.
Discrediting you could curb the arrogance of the Republicans."
Lionel nodded:
"Paul, that direction is somewhat interesting. The conservatives have a motive, they certainly don't like me.
But how effective would attacking me personally be in stopping the vast project of secularizing education?
Would Minister Ferry change the entire textbook compilation policy just because I, one person, became embroiled in controversy? Of course not.
Given his character, he would probably directly ask Count Rohan to resign, and then find another uncontroversial deputy minister to continue pushing the agenda."
Everyone fell silent in contemplation once more, realizing that neither "jealous peers" nor "ideological enemies" seemed to explain all the suspicious points.
After a good while, Lionel slowly spoke again:
"Let's return to the question of 'benefit.'
Setting aside personal grudges and ideological differences, thinking purely from a perspective of self-interest—if my work were selected for the 'French Reader,' who would feel threatened?
Or, conversely, if I were completely out of the picture due to scandal, who would gain the most tangible, most direct benefit?"
He paused before continuing:
"Beyond the immense honor and potential boost in fame for the author, what other more practical, more significant gains might a work selected for a nationally unified textbook bring, something we might have overlooked before?"
Céard tentatively replied,
"Royalties? But the 'French Reader' usually doesn't pay high royalties, does it?"
Hennique also agreed:
"Indeed, compared to newspaper serialization and standalone book sales, the small amount of royalties from being selected for a textbook is almost negligible."
Lionel chuckled inwardly upon hearing this; this was precisely the advantage of information asymmetry—France had never had a nationally unified French textbook before.
He was very aware of the immense, sustained influence that a living author's work would gain once it became required reading for tens of millions of students nationwide.
And how astonishing its indirect commercial value would be.
However, the mechanics of this were still a vague blind spot for French writers in 1880.
Because earlier French textbooks for primary and secondary schools primarily selected passages from the 'Bible,' 'Lives of Saints,' 'Moral Stories,' and ancient Latin classics.
Works by modern or contemporary authors were rarely chosen, not even Voltaire's.
As for things like teacher's guides, supplementary materials, mandatory extracurricular reading lists, Paris mock exams, five-year mock exams with three years of actual past papers... these were completely unheard of.
It seemed, however, that he wasn't the only one with such business acumen in this era.
Lionel didn't reveal it directly but continued to guide:
"Royalties might be negligible. But what about influence?
Think about it: tens of thousands of children reading your work every year, their teachers explaining your work, and a constant stream of related reference books and analytical articles emerging...
What an enormous driving force this continuous exposure and authoritative endorsement would be for boosting the sales and reputation of all of an author's works?"
He paused, then, seeing the understanding expressions on their faces, threw out another key point:
"And behind all of this, besides the author, who else is closely tied to these works and stands to gain enormous profits?"
Huysmans' eyes suddenly lit up; he seemed to have caught onto something:
"The publisher... are you saying, Charpentier?"
As soon as he spoke, it was as if a lightning bolt had flashed through the living room.
Everyone was stunned for a moment, then revealed expressions of sudden realization!
That's right! Whether it's "Letter from an Unknown Woman," "Father Milon," or the currently serialized "The Benjamin Boudon Incidents," the publisher of Lionel Sorel's works is Georges Charpentier!
Although several other short stories were serialized in Le Petit Parisien, when they are eventually collected and published, they will likely still fall under "Charpentier's Bookshelf."
If Lionel's works are selected for textbooks, "Charpentier's Bookshelf" is sure to experience a huge leap in sales and public recognition!
Georges Charpentier's position in the publishing world would become even more stable, possibly even overshadowing other competitors in one fell swoop!
Conversely, if Lionel were disgraced, the biggest loser, besides Lionel himself, would undoubtedly be Charpentier, who had invested enormous resources in him!
So, who would least want to see Charpentier advance further thanks to Lionel?
Who would most wish for Lionel's downfall, thereby striking a blow against Charpentier?
The entire deduction process became clear under Lionel's guidance.
Excited expressions appeared on everyone's faces, as if they had truly solved a mystery.
Maupassant slapped his thigh:
"Good heavens! It must be the handiwork of Calmann-Lévy or that old miser Hetzel!
They saw 'Charpentier's Bookshelf' gaining momentum because of you and couldn't sit still!
Damn it, Lionel, you really should write detective novels, just like Edgar Allan Poe!"
Huysmans and the others also nodded in agreement:
"Exactly, this deductive conclusion truly aligns with the 'who benefits' logic.
Attacking you, the real target is to severely damage Charpentier. This is much more direct and much dirtier than any struggle among literati."
Zola's expression was serious:
"If that's truly the case, Lionel, you've almost become a casualty of a commercial war!"
However, just as everyone was about to accept this "truth" and begin to denounce the unscrupulous publishers, Lionel suddenly laughed.
He laughed easily, as if he wasn't the one who had just guided everyone step-by-step to deduce the "true culprit."
He waved his hand, interrupting their indignant protests:
"Gentlemen, gentlemen, please note, what we just engaged in was merely a deduction game based on the 'who benefits' principle.
It's logically sound, and it might even be close to the truth. But we have no evidence whatsoever.
All of this is just our speculation and inference here in this warm living room."
His words were like a basin of cold water, calming the excited crowd.
Yes, it was all just speculation.
Lionel stood up and delivered his concluding remarks:
"So, let's stop this game here for now. As for what the truth truly is..."
He shrugged, his tone becoming light:
"Perhaps tomorrow, I'll pay a visit to Monsieur Charpentier and have a cup of coffee with him."
Before leaving, Lionel's last words were particularly meaningful:
"Gentlemen, this 'textbook war' is not over; it has only just begun."
(End of Chapter)