Chapter 127.
Thursday arrived, bringing with it the official 12:00 PM release of the starting gate draw for the Queen Elizabeth II Cup.
Naturally, by noon, Mejiro Dober had returned to the Team Sadalsuud lounge, settling onto the sofa beside Shuta An. They were ready to analyze the draw data together and finalize their tactical blueprint.
"Dober, what gate do you think you're going to pull this time?"
The young Trainer asked, genuinely curious about her intuition.
"To me, it fundamentally doesn't matter." Dober answered without a microsecond of hesitation. "I am absolutely confident I can dismantle this entire field, even if they throw me in the absolute furthest outside gate."
Shuta An's mouth twitched into an amused grin.
"Well, aren't we radiating absolute confidence today?"
"Then what gate do you hope I draw, Ann?"
Dober stared directly into her lover's eyes, turning the question back on him.
"Statistically, what gate do you think provides the absolute optimal tactical advantage for me?"
"Logically, if the URA Association possesses even a shred of situational awareness, they won't assign you to the far outside for your retirement race. Statistically, the optimal draw would be a middle gate. Given that there is a full field of 18 Uma Musumes participating in the Cup this year, I would calculate that Gate 8 or 9 offers the cleanest line."
Shuta mused, his gaze drifting thoughtfully.
"That sounds mathematically sound."
Dober nodded. As she had just stated, she genuinely didn't harbor any strong emotional preference regarding the draw.
The exact second the analog clock on the wall clicked to "12." a notification chime pinged from Shuta's laptop. Incidentally, the custom notification audio was a clip of Silence Suzuka's debut single.
Dober pouted slightly at the sound but opted to remain silent.
The young man quickly accessed his inbox, opening the official dispatch from the URA Association. He seamlessly cast the email content onto the lounge's massive monitor so Dober could easily read the specific bracket data without having to lean over his shoulder.
"Gate 1 goes to Clockwork, the filly who just secured second place in the Shuka Sho, losing by a literal nose to Phalaenopsis."
Dober noted instantly, her tactical memory retrieving the relevant data. Because she was heavily invested in observing the current generation of Triple Tiara runners, she recognized the name immediately.
"I recall Clockwork operates exclusively as an Oikomi, correct? Literally every single race in her career profile has been executed from the absolute rear of the pack. Drawing Gate 1 is a catastrophic tactical disadvantage for a chaser."
Shuta analyzed, a hint of professional pity in his voice.
"That is mathematically true. But is there a statistical probability that she might call an audible, change her inherent tactics, and attempt to push forward from that rail position?"
Dober pondered, genuinely considering the possibility. She had successfully executed a mid-career tactical shift herself, so she knew it wasn't biologically impossible.
Shuta met his lover's gaze, offering a soft smile before shaking his head.
"Not sure, but it is difficult for an Uma Musume of Clockwork's specific caliber to successfully execute a fundamental tactical shift on such short notice. Even with your elite parameters, Dober, I had to aggressively force you to practice a tactical shift during a lower-stakes race in your debut year before deploying it in a G1. Furthermore, her Trainer almost certainly hasn't factored that kind of flexibility into her regimen. He likely thinks under the assumption that her one specialized trick is absolute. Looking at that Gate 1 draw now, he is undoubtedly panicking."
"When you break it down like that, I don't feel quite as much pity for her." Dober retorted, her tone sharpening. "On the Twinkle Series stage, unless you can refine your singular, specialized skill to the point of absolute invincibility, you mathematically must possess a diversified tactical arsenal to survive."
"That is a flawlessly sound argument."
Shuta agreed, scrolling further down the official roster.
Mejiro Dober had drawn Gate 6.
"Dober, your draw is absolutely optimal!" the young Trainer's face lit up. "It seems the URA Association finally decided against playing their usual political games. Drawing another far-outside gate would have required a massive tactical headache to navigate."
"Gate 6 places me slightly inside of the true center. Factoring in the track, I will absolutely have to execute a Senko tactic for this race."
Dober decided instantly.
"Exactly. A classic Senko deployment. You will aggressively secure the fifth or sixth position out of the gate, then transition into a sustained cruise. Once you bank into the final turn, you can read the localized telemetry and adapt as needed to determine the exact microsecond to detonate your acceleration and break away from the pack."
The tactical blueprint Shuta devised for Dober was terrifyingly simple and brutally direct. In the absence of an equal like Air Groove, there was mathematically no one in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup field capable of contending with Dober's baseline parameters. Therefore, executing the most orthodox, structurally sound leading tactic was also the most unstoppable.
"Now that I think about it, what gate did Phalaenopsis pull?"
Dober asked, her tactical focus shifting to her most prominent rival.
Shuta scrolled further down the screen.
"Gate 11."
"That is also a highly advantageous draw for Phalaenopsis." Dober noted, raising an eyebrow. "Assuming zero anomalies occur during the break, she should also be adopting a Senko tactic similar to mine. Therefore, there is a high statistical probability that she might attempt to aggressively contend with me for the optimal leading position immediately after exiting the gates."
"If she actually attempts to burn stamina to run ahead of you during the initial positioning phase, she is going to walk straight into a physiological trap." Shuta smiled coldly. "Honestly, if Phalaenopsis's Trainer possesses a little clarity, he will explicitly instruct her to tuck in and shadow behind you for the duration of the race, rather than attempting to assert dominance at the front."
Dober tilted her head, her expression flashing profound confusion. The momentary, bewildered look was utterly adorable to the young man, but he didn't want to leave his ace in the dark, so he quickly provided the tactical context.
"The fundamental reason Phalaenopsis is only a two-time Tiara winner, rather than an undefeated Triple Tiara champion, is because she mathematically collapsed during the Japanese Oaks. She ran a late-charging strategy in that race, but her final 3-furlong sprint velocity was still statistically slower than the winning Uma Musume who ran from the front. More critically, her velocity experienced a massive, observable degradation in the final furlong."
"So... her baseline stamina parameters are inferior to mine?"
Dober instantly grasped the implication.
"In that specific scenario, it would indeed unwise for Phalaenopsis to intentionally consume her limited stamina reserves early just to contend with me for track position."
"Precisely. And let's not forget this year's actual Oaks champion, Erimo Excel, is also participating in this Cup—"
Shuta scrolled to the bottom of the email, a wry, helpless smile suddenly appearing on his face.
"She was assigned to Gate 17—"
Dober stared at the screen, genuinely at a loss for words.
"Regardless of the other variables, the narrative of this race is now cemented. It will entirely revolve around aggressively securing an optimal leading position, maintaining a flawless cruise velocity, and finally, executing a violent burst of acceleration in the final turn—or dragging the tension out to the final straight before detonating."
Shuta summarized, closing the email.
"The race situation is highly manageable. Given your extensive race experience, Dober, I likely don't need to issue any further micro-instructions."
"Do not worry!" Dober met her lover's gaze, her eyes burning with absolute, uncompromising resolve. "I will definitively secure this victory!"
Minutes after the official starting gate data was published, the professional racing media and handicapping experts released their updated analytical models.
In a massive, jarring contrast to the toxic, wishful thinking dominating the civilian comment sections, the professional experts were absolutely, unanimously backing Mejiro Dober.
"The gate draw is flawless. Her baseline strength parameters are top-tier. There is absolutely zero empirical data to suggest that any other Uma Musume in this field possesses the capability to defeat her."
A senior analyst from Twinkle Magazine offered an even more brutal, unvarnished assessment:
"If we were to theoretically remove Mejiro Dober from this specific entry list, the overall competitive intensity of the field would be equivalent to a standard, mid-tier G2 race. However, because Mejiro Dober is anchoring this roster, it is statistically claimed that the unfolding of the race will be far more violently one-sided than the civilian public opinion currently dares to suggest."
Sitting in her dormitory, Phalaenopsis pouted deeply as she scrolled through the ruthless professional assessments on her phone.
Her Trainer, Maeda, offered a helpless, comforting pat on her shoulder.
"Do not allow those statistical projections to compromise your psychological state. Since we cannot alter the media narrative with words, our only tactical option is to execute our absolute best performance on the turf, and leave the final mathematics to the Three Goddesses."
"Mm. I know."
Phalaenopsis whispered, her eyes fixed on the screen.