Chapter 23: The Horik Conspiracy Accelerates
The visions came like hammer blows now—fire and blood and children's faces painted in supernatural clarity that left Paul gasping awake in the pre-dawn darkness with the taste of smoke in his mouth and the certainty that time was running out faster than he'd calculated.
Fire consuming the great hall. Ragnar's children's terrified faces. Horik's smile as he watches families burn.
Paul activated Daily Vision for the seventh morning in a row, burning mana to confirm what his instincts already knew—the conspiracy was approaching critical mass with the inexorable momentum of an avalanche.
[DAILY VISION - AUTOMATED TRIGGER]
[URGENCY LEVEL: CRITICAL]
[MANA COST: 0 - EMERGENCY OVERRIDE]
The images that flowed through his consciousness carried the sharp-edged clarity of immediate prophecy rather than distant possibility. Horik's conspirators had grown from three to seven, their meetings now held in abandoned buildings rather than taverns, their preparations shifting from theoretical discussion to practical planning.
"It's accelerating. Whatever timeline I thought I had just got cut in half."
Paul stumbled from his bedroll and activated Success Rate Analysis with the desperate urgency of someone checking calculations that determined whether families lived or died.
[QUERY: PROBABILITY OF HORIK'S BETRAYAL OCCURRING BEFORE PARIS RAID]
[RESULT: 78%]
[TIMELINE: 4-8 WEEKS MAXIMUM]
[MANA COST: 4 MP - REMAINING: 22/29]
Seventy-eight percent chance the massacre happens before they leave for Paris. Four to eight weeks maximum.
Paul ran a second query with hands that trembled from more than morning cold.
[QUERY: PROBABILITY OF RAGNAR'S FAMILY SURVIVING WITHOUT INTERVENTION]
[RESULT: 8%]
[FACTORS: SURPRISE ATTACK (ADVANTAGE HORIK), SUPERIOR NUMBERS (ADVANTAGE HORIK), TACTICAL POSITIONING (ADVANTAGE HORIK), RAGNAR'S ABSENCE (CRITICAL WEAKNESS)]
Eight percent. Without intervention, Ragnar's children die screaming.
Paul found himself pacing the guest quarters like a caged animal, his mind racing through options that all required him to be in Kattegat when the attack came. But he couldn't stay—Lagertha needed to return north to secure their territory, and Paul couldn't abandon her to remain as Ragnar's protector. The Paris raid was historically crucial, and missing it could destabilize everything he'd worked to preserve.
"Remote intervention. I have to set up a warning system that works from a distance."
Paul spent the morning crafting a message that would convey critical intelligence without revealing supernatural knowledge. The words had to be specific enough for Ragnar to act on but cryptic enough to avoid questions about how Paul could know such details.
"The crow plans to eat the eagle's eggs while the eagle hunts. Winter comes for the young. Trust the ship-builder and the shield."
Translation: Horik (crow) planned to target Ragnar's (eagle) children while Ragnar was away. Attack coming soon (winter). Floki (ship-builder) was loyal, use him. Be ready with defenses (shield).
Paul found Bjorn Trader in the market—a merchant who'd profited handsomely from Paul's system store arbitrage and owed him significant favors. The man's weathered face lit up when he saw Paul approaching, then shifted to concern when he recognized the intensity in Paul's expression.
"I need you to deliver a message," Paul said without preamble. "To Ragnar personally. One week before he plans any major journey. Not before, not after. Exact timing matters."
Bjorn Trader accepted the sealed message with the particular seriousness of someone who understood that some requests carried weight beyond their apparent simplicity.
"What if he doesn't understand?" the merchant asked.
"He will," Paul replied. "Ragnar's paranoid enough to see threats in shadows. This will give those shadows substance."
Paul activated Success Rate Analysis to confirm his planning.
[QUERY: PROBABILITY OF WARNING REACHING RAGNAR IN TIME]
[RESULT: 87%]
[FACTORS: MERCHANT'S RELIABILITY (HIGH), MESSAGE TIMING (OPTIMAL), RAGNAR'S RECEPTIVITY (PARANOID BUT TRUSTING OF SOURCE)]
Eighty-seven percent. Good enough odds when balanced against the certainty of disaster without intervention.
But the warning was only half the solution. Paul needed someone inside Kattegat to act as his eyes and hands when the moment came. Someone Ragnar trusted absolutely, who could serve as both spy and protector.
He found Floki in his workshop, surrounded by the tools and timber that transformed his visions of perfect ships into floating reality. The boat-builder looked up from his work with the particular intensity that came from being interrupted during moments of creation.
"Horik will ask you to betray Ragnar soon," Paul said without preamble.
Floki's eyes sharpened with interest rather than surprise. "You've seen this?"
"In threads and shadows. He'll offer you much—second in command, wealth, promises of power under his rule. When he does, play along. Pretend to consider it. Then tell Ragnar immediately."
Floki set down his tools with the careful precision of someone whose hands had learned never to waste motion. "You're asking me to lie to a king."
"I'm asking you to tell him what he wants to hear until Ragnar is ready for the truth. There's a difference."
"You're manipulating fate itself, seer. That's dangerous."
Paul met Floki's gaze without flinching. "More dangerous than letting Ragnar die?"
Floki considered the question with the serious attention of someone whose entire worldview was built around understanding the difference between acceptable and unacceptable risks.
"Fair point," he said finally. "I'll do it. But know this—the gods don't like it when mortals play with their tapestry. Eventually, they pull back."
"Let them. As long as Ragnar's children live to see spring, the gods can collect whatever price they want."
Paul spent the rest of the day setting up an intelligence network that felt more like preparing for war than diplomacy. He approached several of Lagertha's warriors privately, suggesting they should "visit Kattegat often" to maintain connections with old comrades. The suggestion carried enough casual logic to avoid suspicion while establishing a flow of information that would keep Paul informed of developments he couldn't witness personally.
[SYSTEM POINTS EARNED: 150]
[TOTAL SYSTEM POINTS: 2,025]
[INTELLIGENCE NETWORK ESTABLISHED]
[WARNING SYSTEM ACTIVATED]
[MENTAL STRAIN: EXCESSIVE FUTURE-SIGHT USAGE DETECTED]
[CLARITY DEGRADATION: 88% - RECOMMEND REST PERIOD]
They departed Kattegat the next morning, and Paul spent the entire journey north using Success Rate Analysis obsessively, checking and rechecking variables that determined whether his remote intervention would succeed.
"Did the warning reach Ragnar?" Query. Check. 87% probability.
"Will Floki follow through?" Query. Check. 91% probability.
"Will Ragnar survive?" Query. Check. Fluctuating between 78% and 84%.
"Will the children live?" Query. Check. Rising from 8% to 67% with interventions.
The constant usage left Paul with a headache that felt like ice picks behind his eyes and the particular exhaustion that came from pushing supernatural abilities beyond their intended limits. But he couldn't stop—too much depended on getting the calculations right.
Lagertha finally intervened physically, grabbing his hands to stop him from activating another query.
"You've done what you can," she said firmly. "Now we wait."
Paul stared at her with eyes that felt raw from seeing too many possible futures. "What if it's not enough?"
"Then we'll deal with the consequences when they happen. But destroying yourself with worry won't change the outcome."
"She's right. I've set the pieces in motion. Either they'll work or they won't, and obsessing over probabilities won't improve the odds."
Paul closed his eyes and tried to let go of the need to control everything, knowing that somewhere behind them, the future was rushing toward a moment where children would live or die based on choices he'd influenced but couldn't command.
[MENTAL STRAIN REDUCING: REST PERIOD ACKNOWLEDGED]
[NEXT PHASE: NORTHERN CONSOLIDATION]
[TIMELINE STATUS: INTERVENTION PENDING]
The road stretched ahead toward their northern territory, but Paul's attention remained fixed on Kattegat and the conspiracy that would either validate his warnings or prove that some futures were too fixed to change.
"Please let it be enough. Please let Ragnar be paranoid enough to listen."
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