Anduin settled deeper into his chair, accepting the gravity of the question Dumbledore had posed. The room was silent, the five adult wizards focusing their collective attention on the schoolboy. This was not a test of memory, but a test of strategic clarity.
He paused for a measured ten seconds before replying, ensuring his tone conveyed absolute detachment and cold logic.
"Professor Dumbledore, I must first establish the probability framework," Anduin began, his voice devoid of emotion.
"The source is a second-hand student rumor, filtered through a known Death Eater's relative. Therefore, the inherent probability of this intelligence being entirely accurate is statistically low—perhaps no higher than twenty-five percent. The most likely scenario is that the news is either deliberate disinformation or simple, boastful conjecture by a minor player."
He fixed Dumbledore with an unflinching gaze. "Given this low probability, most purely analytical minds would suggest dismissing the information entirely, as diverting resources to a twenty-five percent risk is inefficient."
He then executed his rhetorical shift. "However, the equation changes entirely when considering the consequences. If P(Truth)=0.25, and the outcome is merely a false alarm, the Cost of Action is negligible—a few ruined holiday plans, some increased security. But if the P(Truth) is indeed even twenty-five percent, and the Cost of Inaction is the death or injury of key Order members, then the risk calculation is utterly inverted. The potential catastrophic cost outweighs the low probability exponentially. Believing is therefore preferable to dismissing. I relayed the message not because I am certain of its truth, but because I am certain of the disastrous consequences should I have remained silent."
A slow, thoughtful smile spread across Dumbledore's face. "Precisely, Anduin. A rigorous application of risk assessment. You handled the ethical dilemma perfectly." He then leaned back, his eyes moving around the table.
"Actually, gentlemen, I have received conflicting yet corroborating information from other sources over the past forty-eight hours. The signals are fractured, but the general threat assessment now aligns. I had called this meeting even before Sirius contacted me, primarily to address these persistent, unsettling whispers."
Anduin felt a sudden, sharp coldness settle in his stomach. Conflicting yet corroborating information. Dumbledore hadn't needed Sirius's information for proof; he had needed it for confirmation bias. What is his source?
Anduin's mind raced: A Divination method known only to him? An unbreakable oath with a spy? If the information is leaking from the inner circle, is there a mole working for Dumbledore, or is this the sound of political infighting amongst the Death Eaters themselves? The possibility of a spy network was far more intriguing than simple divination.
The people around the table exchanged looks of sudden, grim enlightenment. The student rumor, combined with Dumbledore's hidden channels, painted a clear picture.
"It is settled then. The Death Eaters will launch an attack over Christmas," Edgar Bones stated, stroking his thick, brown beard with a heavy hand. "The question shifts from if to how. We must determine if this is a large, coordinated assault on the Ministry—highly unlikely given their depleted resources—or, more plausibly, a series of targeted ambushes against key individuals."
Gideon Prewett, his face losing its cheerful demeanor, instantly saw the domestic danger. "Ambushes against individuals are highly improbable. The holidays are upon us. Most of us will be hunkered down with family, preparing for Christmas. People aren't wandering around alone right now; they are gathering."
"Gathering!" Moody barked, the realization hitting him. "That makes the targets much larger, but still confined. We need to remind every member to take extreme, mandatory security precautions when assembling for the holidays!"
Emily Vance, the elegant witch, spoke next, her voice cool and measured. "If the primary target is indeed the convergence of powerful families, then we need to identify the known gathering points. Are any major family holiday parties scheduled that would draw high-value Order members together?"
Sirius immediately volunteered the known locations. "Lupin, Peter, Anduin, and I will be attending the annual Potter family dinner party—a substantial number of valuable targets in one house."
"Fabian and I," Gideon Prewett added quickly, his cheerful tone replaced by concern for his relatives, "will be spending the Christmas holidays at The Burrow, with my sister Molly and brother-in-law Arthur Weasley. Large family, difficult to protect."
Dumbledore spoke then, his deep voice carrying the full weight of authority. "And we must not forget the larger, politically significant families—the Longbottoms, the McKinnons. They will all be hosting large familial assemblies. These gatherings represent dense clusters of high-profile resistance, making them tactically appealing targets."
Moody grunted, a sound of weary resignation. "Well, I, for one, will be safely spending my Christmas at the Ministry of Magic. No family, no fussy gatherings. I feel perfectly secure in a building devoid of all life."
Anduin, who had been listening intently to the target profiling, momentarily lost his composure. He bowed his head, attempting to muffle a quick, sharp bark of laughter. The absurdity of Moody—the most paranoid man in Britain—jokingly relying on the deserted Ministry for safety struck him as profoundly ironic.
"What is so humorous, boy?" Moody's magical eye whirred and focused on Anduin, his expression deliberately severe. "It is far easier to secure oneself alone than it is for these gentlemen with their vulnerable families to protect."
"I concur completely, Mr. Moody," Anduin replied, instantly suppressing his amusement and adopting a somber expression.
"I've spent many years prioritizing self-sufficiency. Living alone is strategically advantageous. However, the humor lies in the fact that your 'safety' at the Ministry is entirely predicated on the apathy of the Death Eaters. As Mr. Moody points out, with most of the Ministry staff, including the Aurors, on holiday leave, the building will be operating with minimal personnel. If a large-scale attack occurs in London, there will be no one monitoring the magical fluctuations, making a timely response or mobilization by the Aurors impossible."
Dumbledore slowly rubbed the bridge of his nose, acknowledging the troubling logistical point. "Anduin is correct. The holiday period creates a critical window of vulnerability. We cannot rely on the usual chain of command or support from the Ministry. If we are caught unprepared, support might arrive only when it is tragically too late."
"This is maddening!" Sirius burst out, unable to contain his frustration. He paced once, rattling the chairs as he passed. "So, we simply huddle in our homes, waiting for the Dark Lord's disciples to decide when they wish to strike? Why don't we seize the initiative? Why don't we go on the offensive and cause trouble for those cowards first?"
Dumbledore's expression darkened slightly. "Patience, Sirius," he said softly, but with an underlying steel that brooked no argument.
"Starting an open conflict right now, on our own terms, would push the political balance completely in the Dark Lord's favor. Furthermore," Dumbledore paused, and the weight of his next words caused the air in the room to turn cold, "I am not one hundred percent certain that I can defeat Lord Voldemort in open combat at this moment."
Anduin felt a genuine jolt of fear, quickly masked by practiced neutrality. Dumbledore is not certain? If the supposed greatest wizard in the world hesitated, the true power of Voldemort must be far beyond anything Anduin had estimated. This was not a fight between equals; it was a war against a being of dramatically superior power.
Dumbledore then smiled, a gentle, reassuring gesture that didn't quite reach his eyes. "I will manage the logistical issue of the Ministry's response, gentlemen. For now, Sirius, take Anduin back. Go and enjoy your holiday preparation. We have been alerted, we can now be vigilant. Ultimately, nothing bad will happen if we are prepared, will it?"
Sirius, though still clearly fuming over the passive strategy, recognized the dismissal. He scratched his head in angry submission, nodded curtly to Dumbledore, and ushered Anduin toward the stairs.
Once the heavy wooden door had clicked shut behind Sirius and Anduin, Dumbledore drew his wand and cast a complex series of Mufflement and Sealing Charms upon the door and the entire room, ensuring absolute privacy.
The five remaining members looked at each other, the tension in the room spiking instantly.
"Albus," Edgar Bones began, his large, imposing body shifting in his chair. As one of the original founders of the Order, he didn't mince words. "Do you harbor genuine doubts? That dismissal felt far too casual for the intelligence we've just received."
Dumbledore nodded slowly, the gentle smile finally vanishing. "Yes, Edgar. I have a great many doubts. As I told you, my other source confirms an attack is planned. But I also have deep-seated concerns regarding the Death Eaters' operational effectiveness."
He looked intently at the small group. "The names and safe-house locations of the vast majority of our members are secured by the most powerful Fiduciary Charms, known only to a trusted few. Yet, the Death Eaters seem entirely unconcerned about acquiring addresses. This suggests they are either conducting dangerously aggressive Divination—or, far more likely, they are being directed from within."
Gideon Prewett gasped, his face paling. "Are you saying… there is a traitor inside the Order of the Phoenix?"
Mad-Eye Moody immediately slammed his fist on the table, the magical eye spinning wildly. "A double-crossing dog! I knew it! It has to be that sniveling rat Mundungus Fletcher! He does nothing but peddle stolen goods and gossip all day long. He's loyal only to the highest bidder—which would be the Dark Lord!"
Dumbledore raised a hand to silence Moody. "Mundungus is a thief and a coward, Alastor, but I doubt he possesses the strategic knowledge necessary to be a valuable mole. He is entirely expendable, which is why he is useful for low-level tasks."
Edgar Bones looked thoughtful. "Anduin's intelligence mentioned Wilkes. That family is pure-blood political. If there's a traitor, it's likely someone who has access to our sensitive information and also has deep political ties to the Ministry or the old families."
"But Albus," Emmeline Vance interjected, her voice sharp with apprehension. "Why dismiss Sirius so abruptly? I saw the thoughtful look Alastor gave him as he left."
Dumbledore looked from Vance to Moody, who had been studying the door where Sirius had exited.
"I have no doubts whatsoever regarding Sirius's loyalty," Dumbledore clarified slowly, emphasizing the word.
"He would die for the cause and for his friends without a second thought. However, Sirius, as we all know, possesses the secrecy discipline of a cannon blast. He is impulsive, reactive, and incapable of compartmentalizing sensitive information. He wears his heart—and his strategies—on his sleeve. I trust him, but he is a catastrophic security risk when discussing operational countermeasures. He had to be removed before we delved into the possibility of internal betrayal, which, if mentioned to him, would undoubtedly be conveyed to James, and then potentially back to the suspected source, compromising our investigation."
Moody finally nodded, the magical eye slowing to a stop. "You sent him away, not because he was the suspect, but because he's a loose cannon who can't keep an investigation quiet."
"Precisely," Dumbledore confirmed, his gaze becoming intensely serious. "For now, we proceed as if the threat is external, but our true priority shifts to the internal breach. We must act under the assumption that someone in this room, or one of our core members, is the Dark Lord's informant."
-------------------------------------------------------
Hope u can atleast check my p@treon account, I will be grateful. It needs much more time and resources to upload these chapters. I wish u can understand and support me there to maintain this motivation. I also updated a separated HP fanfics tier there.