However, although the holding account had an intraday loss exceeding 100 million yuan, Su Yi was not too concerned about it.
After all, he knew that the anticipated logic of the 'lithium battery' main theme and the explosive market demand for the entire 'new energy industry chain' were still in a continuously strengthening state in the medium to short term.
In this state...
Even if stock prices retreated due to sentiment and news, they would quickly recover lost ground later.
However, despite his full confidence in the future trend of the 'lithium battery' core main theme, many investor groups currently involved in speculating and investing in the 'lithium battery' core main theme area in the market did not share this confidence and assurance.
In continuous post-market discussions, these investors discussed the core stocks in the 'lithium battery' sector, which had generally doubled in price, essentially recovering from the previous 'stock market crash 2.0' phase.
Due to Su Yi's apparent large-scale reduction in holdings to lock in profits and the obvious negative feedback of the intraday market trend.
Among the numerous investor discussions.
It was not uncommon for views suggesting that the 'lithium battery' core concept theme, recently hyped, had already fully reflected expectations, and its stock price had already peaked in the medium to short term.
Even within the 'Magic City Ultratrade Gang' main speculative funds internal group where Su Yi was.
After a brief review, Xu Qiao faced the intraday surge and sharp fall of the entire 'lithium battery' main theme sector.
His originally positive bullish view also underwent a clear change:
"Today, the net outflow of main funds from the 'lithium battery' sector is very large. It feels like the market direction of this core main theme is reversing, and market investors' attitudes and sentiment regarding the expectations for this core main theme are also shifting."
"From a fundamental analysis, the expected logic of the 'lithium battery' line should still have no major changes, right?"
Old Zhang said,
"I feel that the reason why the 'lithium battery' main theme sector fell sharply today with increased volume is mainly due to the large-scale reduction in holdings to lock in profits by Su-brother's 'Financial Street Fuxing Road' seat yesterday."
"Su-brother's large-scale reduction in holdings to lock in profits on the Dragon-Tiger List can only be called a trigger."
Old Wu said,
"I think the main reason for such a significant divergence on the 'lithium battery' line at this position is that the short-term gains of this line since the National Day holiday have been substantial, leading to massive accumulated profit-taking pressure that suppressed further development of the market."
Xu Qiao nodded and replied:
"Indeed, it has risen quite a lot. Core stocks like 'Duofluduo', 'Tianqi Liye', 'Ganfeng Liye', 'Tianci Cailiao', 'Penghui Nengyuan'... etc., have basically doubled their gains in the past month or so since the National Day holiday."
"In addition to the pressure from profit-taking..."
Chen Ge interjected,
"There's also the pressure from the Shanghai Composite Index at the 3500-point resistance level, which has also led to a significant increase in market divergence for this line."
"Profit-taking pressure, declining speculative sentiment, plus the pressure of the Shanghai Composite Index at 3500 points, selling pressure from trapped positions above 3500 points, and year-end funding tightness... Under the combined influence of these factors."
Old Zhang pondered for a moment and said,
"It feels like the market trend, whether it's the broader market or the 'lithium battery' core concept theme, will not be very optimistic for the upcoming period!"
"Shouldn't be that pessimistic, right?"
Old Wu remained relatively optimistic about the future market, saying,
"US stocks are still hitting new highs, and after two rounds of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, the central bank has fully released market monetary liquidity. Coupled with the continuous entry of 'pension funds' into the market and the 'national team's' macro-control, although it's difficult for the market to return to a bull market, maintaining a relatively strong volatile trend should still be quite easy, right?"
Chen Ge replied:
"I agree with Old Wu's view. At this moment, one should not be overly optimistic, but neither should one be overly pessimistic. The divergence in the trend of the 'lithium battery' core main theme indeed exists, but it can be clearly perceived that the improvement in its overall industry fundamentals is still in an accelerating trend, and the state is also constantly stimulating the 'new energy passenger vehicle' market development with relevant policies.
That is to say, even at this moment, market sentiment and fundamentals are somewhat diverging. Stock price trends show significant divergence on the trading floor. However, if we look at a slightly longer time horizon, an upward trend is still clearly present.
Furthermore, from a macroeconomic perspective, the explosion of the 'new energy passenger vehicle' market is a process from 0 to 1. This expected space is by no means as simple as market demand merely doubling.
Moreover, starting from early September. In the 'lithium battery' industry, the price increases of the two main products, 'lithium carbonate' and 'lithium hexafluorophosphate', have already more than doubled by now, right?
Based on the magnitude of product price increases and the space for market demand explosion. Stocks like 'Duofluduo', 'Tianqi Liye', 'Ganfeng Liye', 'Tianci Cailiao'... their current valuations are still very cheap. I believe that the vast number of retail investors participating in speculative trading in the market may not realize this.
However, as core institutional players in the market. Especially for large institutional groups with considerable in-depth research capabilities in the 'new energy industry chain' direction, they must be able to realize this."
"According to your meaning, Chen Ge..."
After listening to Chen Ge's analysis, Xu Qiao said,
"At this moment, it's not an opportunity to sell core stocks related to the 'lithium battery' main theme, but rather still a good opportunity to increase holdings?"
Chen Ge nodded:
"I do think so."
"But if that's the case, why would Su-brother massively reduce his holdings to lock in profits at this time in 'Duofluduo', 'Tianqi Liye', 'Ganfeng Liye' - these core leaders in the 'lithium battery' main theme area with the strongest expectations, and equally strong sentiment and capital follow-up?"
Old Zhang questioned,
"Essentially, Su-brother participated in the 'lithium battery' core main theme when its market started. That is to say, the 'lithium battery' line should also be considered discovered by Su-brother.
It must be admitted that certain powerful institutions in the industry. Indeed have their unique insights in fundamental research and judging industry cycle changes.
However, it makes no sense that Su-brother's cognitive and research abilities, who has been undefeated in the A-share market for the past half year or so, would be inferior to these institutions, would they?
On the surface, the current fundamental changes in the 'lithium battery' core main theme. And the explosive growth in demand for the entire 'new energy passenger vehicle' market are indeed still very optimistic, and expectations are still very strong.
But Su-brother's large-scale reduction in holdings to lock in profits on the 'lithium battery' core main theme is a fact, right?
Therefore, I think long-term optimism is fine, but in the medium to short term, the 'lithium battery' core main theme is highly likely to enter an adjustment cycle."
Hearing Old Zhang's words, Old Wu pondered for a while and also replied:
"Old Zhang, you cannot infer that Su-brother is not optimistic about the 'lithium battery' core main theme based on his position-building data on the Dragon-Tiger List, thereby overturning the current speculative logic of the 'lithium battery' core main theme."
"Old Wu, so you mean..."
Old Zhang was a bit puzzled.
Old Wu paused, then continued:
"After speculating on a series of leading stocks like 'Teli A', 'Meiyan Jixiang', 'Huaguo Zhonggong', the capital Su-brother has accumulated should be far more than 400 million, right? I think Su-brother's total reduction of 400 million in 'Duofluduo', 'Tianqi Liye', and 'Ganfeng Liye' does not necessarily mean he is no longer optimistic about the 'lithium battery' core main theme.
It's highly possible that Su-brother still holds a large amount of chips concentrated in the 'lithium battery' main theme sector, isn't it?
Moreover, even if we analyze based on the Dragon-Tiger List data disclosed by the two markets.
Su-brother's current holdings in 'Penghui Nengyuan', 'Dangsheng Keji', 'Guoxuan Gaoke'... and other core stocks in the 'lithium battery' main theme area, are likely still there, right? It's highly likely he hasn't reduced those positions, right?
Therefore, considering everything...
To short the subsequent development of the 'lithium battery' main theme market based solely on Su-brother's selling on the Dragon-Tiger List, swayed by short-term market sentiment. Is still biased and very unwise."
"The total profit Su-brother harvested from 'Teli A', 'Meiyan Jixiang', 'Huaguo Zhonggong'... and other leading stocks is definitely more than 400 million yuan. But to say that Su-brother still has huge holdings within the 'lithium battery' main theme area, especially in popular stocks like 'Duofluduo', 'Tianqi Liye', 'Ganfeng Liye', where he has already sold a lot of chips, is probably unlikely, right?"
Xu Qiao said,
"No matter from what factors we analyze, I think if Su-brother were truly very optimistic about the subsequent market development of the 'lithium battery' main theme, there would be no reason for him to suddenly sell off 400 million chips at this position, at this time, regardless of cost!
This conclusion can be quickly drawn from Su-brother's previous operational behavior of continuously locking positions in the two big 'monster stocks' 'Teli A' and 'Meiyan Jixiang' until the short-term market peaked before selling massively.
Furthermore, Su-brother's 'Financial Street Fuxing Road' trading seat has a huge influence on the market. If he still held a large number of 'Duofluduo', 'Tianqi Liye', 'Ganfeng Liye' stock chips, he would definitely not openly dump them on the Dragon-Tiger List. After all, wouldn't that be crashing his own market and suffering losses for nothing?"
"So... you followed and massively reduced your holdings today?"
Old Wu asked.
Xu Qiao replied:
"I reduced two-thirds of my position. I'll add the reduced position back when the Shanghai Composite Index falls back to 3200 points, or when the relevant popular leading stocks of the 'lithium battery' core main theme show an upward trend."
"You're fast."
Old Zhang chuckled,
"I only reduced a quarter of my position."
"Reducing positions at this point always feels a bit problematic."
Amidst their differing views, Chen Ge spoke again,
"Let's still look at today's Dragon-Tiger List data before deciding. If on today's Dragon-Tiger List buy and sell data for the two markets, Su-brother's 'Financial Street Fuxing Road' seat in the 'lithium battery' main theme area sells massively again, or if institutional funds start to show a significant net selling status, then it is indeed advisable to be slightly vigilant, control potential drawdowns, and choose some slightly conservative trading strategies."
"I don't think Su-brother continued to sell today."
Old Wu said.
"The internal chip structure of 'Duofluduo' feels a bit loose, and its trading volume today increased significantly, almost hitting a new high for the year."
Old Zhang said,
"Looking at the volume changes, a lot of large funds flowed out, it's highly possible Su-brother, or the institutions that entered earlier, are continuing to sell massively."
Saying that, Old Zhang looked at the time, then turned his gaze to the interface where the Dragon-Tiger List for the two markets was about to refresh.
Under his watchful eye.
And under the watchful eyes of all the speculative funds of the 'Magic City Ultratrade Gang', as well as other core speculative funds in the industry, and numerous retail investor groups in the market, and even many institutional players.
Soon, 5 PM arrived.
According to the refreshed Dragon-Tiger List data for the two markets.
Everyone discovered that 'Financial Street Fuxing Road', which had massively reduced holdings to lock in profits yesterday, did not appear.
And surprisingly... in the 'lithium battery' main theme area, among the few core stocks that made the list, the institutional buying volume in their disclosed Dragon-Tiger List buy and sell data still showed a net buying trend.
And the total buying amount of the top five buy and sell seats was still greater than the total selling amount.
"Oh... this is a bit strange."
Noticing the Dragon-Tiger List data disclosed by the two markets, especially the Dragon-Tiger List data for several listed stocks in the 'lithium battery' main theme area, Old Zhang, who had previously expressed pessimistic sentiment and views on the subsequent market trend of the 'lithium battery' main theme, felt a clear surge of surprise and unexpected emotion, and said in the group,
"Su-brother's trading seat has disappeared again, and institutions are still massively buying core chips in the 'lithium battery' main theme area. The one causing panic selling intraday, unexpectedly... it turned out to be countless retail investor groups."
"The continuous net buying trend of large funds in popular related stocks in the 'lithium battery' main theme area is indeed very surprising."
Xu Qiao, who had reduced two-thirds of his position intraday, now also showed obvious surprise and astonishment.
He @Old Wu and Chen Ge in the group, saying,
"Old Wu, Chen Ge, your judgment was accurate! According to this Dragon-Tiger List data, the 'lithium battery' line... truly still has opportunities for continued speculation and further opening up space!"
Old Wu smiled and said,
"I said there's no need to be pessimistic. Seeing Su-brother's Dragon-Tiger List seat continue to be hidden, it's highly probable that he still has a large amount of holdings in the 'lithium battery' core main theme."
"But what did he mean by selling 400 million yesterday?"
Old Zhang was utterly baffled.
Chen Ge thought carefully for a long time, then replied:
"Su-brother might be thinking of diversifying his long positions. It's highly likely that he has discovered other core main themes with significant potential."
"Damn it..."
Xu Qiao said helplessly,
"I got shaken out today."
"It's alright, just buy back the chips next Monday."
Old Wu comforted,
"Although the Dragon-Tiger List buy and sell data for related listed stocks in the 'lithium battery' main theme area is somewhat unexpected and exceeds expectations, the divergence in the market trend of this main theme still exists. I estimate there will still be one or two days of oscillation."
As messages in the group continued to refresh.
And as several powerful speculative funds in the group engaged in in-depth discussions on the 'lithium battery' main theme and the subsequent market trends of its popular stocks.
Inside and outside the market, wherever other investor groups gathered, and within various asset management firms in the industry.
Although everyone still had some disagreements regarding the 'lithium battery' core main theme, without exception... in their discussions, their focus and hot topics always revolved around 'lithium battery' and even the 'new energy industry chain' main theme.
As for the 'real estate' sector that Su Yi heavily bought into intraday, which showed obvious intraday abnormalities.
Especially 'Kewan Dichan', this core leading stock.
Its market popularity and related discussion intensity were not fierce, and not many people paid attention to this still unpopular market segment.
Of course, the phenomenon of market investors' overall attention being focused on the 'new energy industry chain' direction.
And ignoring the real estate sector, ignoring the core stock 'Kewan Dichan'.
Was also something Su Yi, and the 'Baoneng Faction' main funds that needed to accumulate chips at this moment, were happy to see.
After all, as long as the popularity is not high and investors have differing views on the overall market trend, they can buy more cheap chips at relatively low prices.
Unfortunately, the next two days of the weekend.
Due to positive macroeconomic news from domestic policies, and the continued strong performance of US stocks, hitting new highs.
The previously highly divergent and clearly sluggish market bullish sentiment.
Became enthusiastic and active again.
So, after two days of emotional brewing over the weekend, when the market entered Monday's trading day on November 16th.
The overall indices of the two markets, and related popular core stocks in the 'lithium battery' main theme sector, as well as a large number of 'small and medium-cap' concept theme leading stocks that showed a weak volatile pattern last Friday, and even 'Kewan Dichan' stock, which Su Yi intended to continue accumulating massively at relatively low prices, and its entire real estate sector, all showed a general high open.
Facing the obviously high open market.
Su Yi gazed at the trading panel of 'Kewan Dichan' stock, frowned slightly, and without waiting for its price to fall back, he continued to follow up with large orders, taking over and buying in.
(End of Chapter)