"Based on the current preliminary vote count results, the outcome of remaining in the EU should still be highly probable, right?"
At 2:20 PM Yanjing time, in Hong Kong City, in the trading room of the 'Huifeng Huanyu No. 1' main hedge fund, Godfrey asked Ernest, head of the market research department.
Ernest responded, "Currently, the prediction results from major global institutions still show over 75% of institutions predicting the referendum result will lean towards remaining in the EU. Everyone currently believes that the Sunderland voting district, which has not yet released its preliminary vote count results, has a high degree of uncertainty."
"After the official referendum voting channel opens, I estimate the official results won't be out until tomorrow morning, right?" Godfrey paused, then asked, "The preliminary vote count results from the market, compared to the official voting results after the official voting channel opens, will probably still have quite a few discrepancies!"
Ernest nodded slightly and said, "The final result will definitely not be settled until tomorrow morning, but the results from key voting districts don't need to wait until tomorrow morning. In fact, as long as we know the voting results from the key districts, the final outcome can pretty much be determined."
"Since the official voting results won't be confirmed until tomorrow morning," Godfrey said, "it seems... this battle between bulls and bears will have to wait until tomorrow to determine a winner! Besides information about the referendum, are there any latest updates from the Bank of England?"
Hearing Godfrey's words, Jeremy, head of intelligence, quickly replied, "The unified opinion of the Bank of England's internal committee is still to maintain the stability of the sterling exchange rate market, and they are also continuously injecting U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves into the market. However, the intensity of market intervention is the same as before, without much increase. I estimate that the Bank of England is currently waiting for the official referendum results to be settled.
It's highly probable that before the official referendum results are released, the Bank of England will not intervene too aggressively in the market, because at this time, aggressive market intervention, if the subsequent referendum results significantly fall short of expectations, would render the current strategy and the huge funds invested completely ineffective in influencing the sterling exchange rate."
"Alas, Brian indeed lacks a bit of courage," Godfrey sighed helplessly.
"The market's real-time trading volume, as well as the speed at which both bulls and bears are opening new positions, have started to decline at this moment." During the trio's discussion, Gerald, the trading team leader who had been watching the sterling exchange rate trend, quickly reported, "It's as if the desire of capital institutions across the globe to open new positions is decreasing."
"This is not surprising," Ernest responded. "The uncertainty of the referendum results is right before us, and without new significant news to stimulate the market, it's completely normal for the desire of various funds to open new positions to decrease. At this time... neither going long nor going short is suitable, and the uncertainties faced are significant."
"It seems... all we can do now is wait," Godfrey said, narrowing his eyes and letting out a breath.
"It's not just us waiting," Ernest said. "At this moment, capital across the globe, and countless quiet long and short major institutions in the market, are all waiting."
"Hopefully, as we wait, some good news will emerge," Godfrey said expectantly.
Currently, their fund product's long positions in sterling exchange rates have reached nearly 460,000 lots, almost reaching the maximum holding limit.
With such a massive position holding, the entire fund has lost its initiative.
At this time, facing the uncertainty of the Brexit outcome and the Bank of England's market intervention not exceeding expectations.
Even though the fund account still has up to 3 billion U.S. dollars in reserve cash that can be maximally utilized, he dared not rashly add new positions and further go long under these circumstances.
Similarly...
Within 'Mitsui Sumitomo Investment Hong Kong City Branch' and 'Tianhe Capital', two major long-only institutions that are linked with the 'Huifeng Huanyu No. 1 Main Hedge Fund'.
Sato and Gu Chijiang were watching the sterling exchange rate, which had stabilized again in the 1.4750 to 1.4850 range.
They also dared not rashly change their strategy or carry out position adjustments.
After all, at this time, increasing positions might face the risk of the Brexit result falling short of expectations, or being hit by negative news, further expanding the fund's losses.
Reducing positions, on the other hand, might lead to selling at a relatively low point, dying at dawn before numerous positive factors arrive, and missing the opportunity to cut losses.
Of course, the same applied to the major short-selling institutions currently stagnant in the market.
'Huayi Capital' managed by Su Yi, as well as 'Huayin International' and 'Aberdeen Asset', two major short-selling institutions linked with the institution he manages.
Frederick, Meng Shengfei, and Kong Fansheng.
Faced with the continuously shrinking volume and sideways oscillating sterling exchange rate trend, they didn't have many ideas either.
Everyone remained silent, waiting for 4 PM, and also waiting for the bombardment of new positive and negative news after the official referendum channel opened.
Furthermore, the entire market at this time.
Not limited to the sterling exchange rate market, but even mainstream markets where various global capitals congregate more, such as the euro exchange rate market, the gold spot market, and the U.S. dollar index exchange rate market, major capital institutions have temporarily ceased activity.
Only individual investors and speculative hot money from around the world were still trading intensely.
"Market volume continues to shrink, it feels like a precursor to a coming storm!"
Seeing that it was nearing 3 PM and the sterling exchange rate market volume was still shrinking, Xu Qiao, who still held a large short position and had already turned a loss into a profit, making nearly a million U.S. dollars, couldn't help but exclaim in the Magic City Ultra-Short Gang main speculative fund group where Su Yi was located in the mainland's Magic City.
"A storm is brewing!" Old Wu couldn't help but echo in the group.
"Global capital's attention must be focused on the sterling exchange rate market, on this Brexit referendum, right?" Old Zhang said, "I'm afraid this Brexit referendum will not only be a major earthquake for the global foreign exchange market but also for global stock and bond markets, won't it?"
"That's for sure," Brother Chen said with a smile. "As the results of the UK Brexit referendum become clearer, whether it's A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, or U.S. stocks, there will be strong reactions. I estimate that in the dozen or twenty hours after the Brexit referendum channel opens and before the results are out, many people won't be able to sleep."
"Brother Chen, when do you think the most intense market fluctuations will occur?" Xu Qiao asked.
Brother Chen thought for a moment and said, "That's hard to say. The current standoff between bulls and bears is essentially everyone acting on expectations, essentially gambling. No one can say for sure what the real outcome will be. If we're talking about the most intense period of market fluctuations, I estimate it should be when the voting channels close after all votes are cast, and various voting districts count their results. This time point... should be tomorrow morning, or in the latter half of the U.S. trading session late tonight."
"Alas... it looks like I'll be staying up late again tonight," Xu Qiao sighed softly.
Old Wu chuckled and teased, "Staying up all night to earn millions, or even several million U.S. dollars, I think it's very worth it. Anyway, in the next dozen or so hours, global financial markets will experience significant volatility."
As he spoke, Old Wu turned his attention back to the sterling exchange rate market.
As market trading time progressed further, the real-time trading volume in the sterling exchange rate market continued to decline.
Not only were major funds opening very few positions, but even speculative individual investors in the market had a diminishing desire to open positions.
And this sign of continuous shrinking volume...
It continued until 4 PM Yanjing time, when the UK Brexit referendum voting channel officially opened, before starting to improve.
When the referendum voting channel officially opened and trading entered the European trading session.
The sterling exchange rate trend once again became intense.
However, because the voting period lasted until 8 PM Yanjing time, and formal vote counting could not be done during voting, everyone was unable to know the true voting results.
After the sterling exchange rate trading became active again, it still did not show any unilateral breakthrough pattern.
At 5 PM, the sterling exchange rate rebounded with volatility, returning to the 1.4850 level.
At 6:38 PM, the sterling exchange rate returned to the 1.4900 level.
At 8 PM, after the official voting channel closed, the sterling exchange rate peaked at 1.4978 before falling back again, oscillating downwards.
Overall...
Even in these few hours after the official voting channel opened.
Market bullish expectations strengthened, and everyone's expectations for the referendum result continued to lean towards remaining in the EU, yet it still failed to support the sterling exchange rate breaking through the 1.5000 level barrier and returning to a trend where major long-only institutions held absolute dominance.
At 9:30 PM, when market trading entered the U.S. trading session.
The sterling exchange rate fell back to around the 1.4850 level.
After that...
Throughout the entire U.S. trading session, the sterling exchange rate maintained an oscillating trend between the 1.4700 and 1.4900 levels.
At the same time, amidst the sterling exchange rate's volatile movement, long and short positions in the market once again increased, both approaching a scale of 6 million lots.
The entire oscillating trend continued until 6 AM on June 24th.
As time once again entered the Asian trading session, after twelve consecutive hours of vote counting, the official voting results from various voting districts began to be announced sequentially.
The first to be announced was the Gibraltar counting district, where institutional consensus expectations were relatively strong.
At 6:37 AM, the Gibraltar counting district announced the final citizen voting results.
According to the results, the number of citizens supporting remaining in the EU reached 19,322, while those supporting Brexit numbered 823.
In the entire voting district, the proportion supporting remaining in the EU reached 95.9%.
Immediately after Gibraltar announced its final voting results.
The Newcastle voting district, an important swing region predicted by institutions and also a highly uncertain voting district, announced its final voting results.
According to the voting results for the Newcastle voting district.
A total of 65,404 people supported remaining in the EU, while 63,598 people supported Brexit, meaning 51% supported remaining and 49% supported leaving.
These first two districts to announce results, unsurprisingly...
Both far exceeded the expectations of numerous global financial institutions for the Brexit referendum results.
Thus, at 7:07 AM, less than a minute after the Newcastle voting results were officially announced.
The sterling exchange rate soared unimpeded, showing a linear upward trend, breaking through the 1.4900 and 1.5000 level barriers in one go, skyrocketing by nearly 220 points within a minute, directly breaking the shackles of the 1.5000 level and reaching approximately 1.5020.
And this rapid fluctuation...
Also caused 'Huayi Chengyuan No. 1', the main fund product managed by Su Yi.
To instantly lose over 400 million U.S. dollars in profit, bringing the main fund product he managed almost back to its breakeven cost line.
"Mr. Su, the voting results from the two major swing districts, Gibraltar and Newcastle, both overwhelmingly lean towards remaining in the EU. This... doesn't look good!"
Seeing the sterling exchange rate return to the 1.5000 level barrier at lightning speed.
Inside 'Huayin International', in the trading room of Investment Department Two, Meng Shengfei looked nervous, his nerves completely stretched.
Watching nearly 100 million U.S. dollars in profit in the fund account vanish just like that, he quickly spoke to Su Yi via instant messaging.
Su Yi was also intently watching the sterling exchange rate trend at this moment, responding, "No rush, the results from the most important major swing voting districts haven't been announced yet. Don't be too nervous about a temporary bullish counterattack."
"The sterling exchange rate returning to the 1.5000 level barrier is really not good news for us," Kong Fansheng of Huayin International Investment Department One said with a frown, also in a hurry. "Mr. Su, the entire market's bullish sentiment has surged after the announcement of these two referendum results. Net long positions in the market are skyrocketing, while short positions are continuously plummeting."
"Indeed, a large number of short positions are being closed with stop-losses," replied Frederick, the fund manager of 'Aberdeen Asset Evolution No. 1' main fund product, who was also observing the sterling exchange rate trend. "However, since things have come to this, we can only trust our previous judgment and firmly maintain our holding confidence. Out of over a dozen voting districts, only two have been announced so far, and the overall number of people supporting remaining in the EU has not exceeded those supporting Brexit by too much. There is definitely a chance for a reversal in subsequent voting results."
"Alas, we can truly only hold firm to our confidence in holding positions," Meng Shengfei sighed softly and said, "At this point, even if we wanted to retreat, it's probably too late. Come on... let the storm rage even fiercer!"
As he spoke...
The next moment, as expected.
The Sunderland voting district, which had a relatively high degree of uncertainty in the predictions of various global financial institutions, immediately followed by announcing its final voting results.
According to the voting results announced by the Sunderland voting district.
The number of people supporting remaining in the EU was 51,930, while the number of people supporting Brexit surprisingly reached 82,394.
This was more than 30,000 people higher than the number supporting remaining in the EU.
This also meant that in the entire voting district, support for remaining in the EU was only 39%, while support for Brexit, far exceeding market expectations, reached 61%.
This result could be said to have completely surpassed the estimated data results of major global financial institutions previously, and was entirely beyond everyone's expectations.
Furthermore, due to the data from the Sunderland voting district.
The results from the three voting districts currently announced directly shifted from a situation where the number of people supporting remaining in the EU was significantly ahead just a minute ago, to one where the number of people supporting Brexit was significantly ahead.
(End of chapter)