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Chapter 119 - Chapter 119 - Rollercoaster

James Robinson heard Noah Scott's question, but he showed a hesitant expression.

Simon Westeros's previous stock index futures operations: one success might not be much, two in a row could be luck, but three in a row was enough to prove that the young man definitely had something to rely on.

In this situation, if Lehman Brothers followed suit, they would definitely achieve unexpected gains. As the CEO of American Express, Lehman Brothers' parent company, James Robinson definitely did not lack adventurous spirit to reach his current position.

However, such an act was clearly a textbook example of insider trading.

American Express bought Lehman Brothers three years ago to venture into the long-planned investment banking sector.

If they did proceed with copycat trading, and the matter came to light, Lehman Brothers would surely face an SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) investigation, and the company's clients would also be lost in large numbers.

Most importantly, other investment banks on Wall Street would definitely not miss the opportunity to drive American Express, a potential powerful rival, out of the investment banking field.

However, in just three and a half months, with a principal of $75 million, a net profit of over $200 million, this kind of exorbitant profit was truly irresistible.

It's worth noting that American Express, a global financial and travel services company with a current market value of over $13 billion and more than 50,000 employees, only had a net profit of just over $180 million in the second quarter of 1987.

Evidently, a young man not yet 20 years old had, in just over three months of operations in the stock index futures market, already earned profits exceeding the quarterly earnings of a corporate giant like American Express during the same period.

After weighing his options for a few minutes, James Robinson ultimately couldn't resist the temptation. He patted the trading records of Westeros Company in his hand and said to the Scotts: "I will discuss this with Paul and the board members over the weekend, and try to raise a sum of money before next Monday. Neil, you'll be in charge of this matter, Noah will handle the trading, and both of you will report directly to me personally. Remember, you must be cautious, cautious, and even more cautious. You should all be aware of the consequences if this matter is exposed".

 

Los Angeles.

Inside the mansion in Pacific Palisades, Simon hung up Noah Scott's call and leaned back in the leather chair, deep in thought.

Janette had been sitting rather ungracefully on the large desk in front of Simon, holding several reports sent by Noah Scott, and flipping through them with great interest, wiggling her bare, beautiful feet.

Seeing Simon hang up the phone, Janette poked her toe on Simon's leg and said, "Little rascal, I believe now that you won't need many years to achieve those three wishes".

His interrupted thoughts had not yet fully reassembled, Simon just smiled and held the woman's small foot that was playing on his leg, tickling her sole a few times, and said, "Didn't you believe it before?"

Janette smiled and pulled her foot back, saying, "Of course I believed it. It's just that I didn't expect you to make money so quickly. Our family, starting from my great-grandfather, has accumulated wealth for over a hundred years, and it only amounts to $2 billion".

Simon said, "But I definitely don't have the ability to push the federal government to abolish inheritance tax, so your family is still more formidable".

When Simon and Janette's relationship was exposed in the first half of the year, reports appeared in newspapers about the Johnston family pushing for the abolition of inheritance tax in Australia. To be able to influence a country's fundamental tax system, that is true deep-seated power.

Now, although he already possessed a fortune of hundreds of millions of dollars, once Simon's wealth was exposed, he might appear to many people as nothing more than a 'fat sheep'.

Simon was very clear about this point.

As a reborn person, accumulating wealth was really not too difficult.

The simplest method: Microsoft's market value is currently only around $1 billion. If Simon were to invest $200,000 in Microsoft stock and hold it until 2000, selling at Microsoft's peak market value of $600 billion, he would immediately earn $120 million.

$200,000, with the North American housing market bubble still at its peak, many middle-class families could probably raise that amount by selling their homes. But they would never know that this money could make them centimillionaires more than a decade later.

Simon, however, knew.

However, if it were merely about accumulating wealth, even if Simon earned $100 billion, without corresponding social influence, he would ultimately still be nothing more than a 'fat sheep' of the 100-billion-dollar variety.

Therefore, Simon was not overly smug about the huge sum he earned from the stock index futures market.

To escape the 'fat sheep' status, he still had a long way to go.

Seeing Simon fall silent, Janet waited patiently for a moment, then scratched his leg with her foot again and asked, "What are you thinking about?"

Simon answered truthfully: "Fat sheep".

"Heh heh," Janette chuckled, "You felt it?"

Simon was puzzled: "What?"

"Noah, of course," Janette blinked, "He's so eager today, there's clearly something going on".

Hearing Janette's reminder, Simon once again caught some of the thoughts that had arisen in his mind after hanging up the phone, and he immediately smiled, saying, "Three consecutive times, 75 million US dollars turned into 278.56 million. If Lehman Brothers could resist not following suit, Wall Street wouldn't be Wall Street".

Janet asked, "So what are you going to do?"

"As long as Lehman Brothers' operations don't affect our interests, letting them earn some money is fine," Simon said, then shook his head, "However, that seems unlikely".

If Lehman Brothers, backed by American Express, were to follow suit, their capital would definitely exceed the less than $300 million currently in Westeros Company's account.

If it remained a long-term operation like now, it might not be a big deal to be followed. But with the stock market crash at the end of October, the situation would definitely be different.

In Simon's memory, during the 1987 crash, the US government's bailout measures were very timely and effective, and the North American stock market stabilized in just one week. Moreover, the S&P 500 index remained at its trough of around 200 points for an even shorter time.

Westeros Company's planned final short contracts would only achieve maximum profit if they were closed at the 200-point bottom. However, the daily contract throughput of the stock index futures market is ultimately limited.

After the stock market crash, if Lehman Brothers also established a large number of short positions, they would definitely arrange for their own contracts to be closed first. Westeros Company's contracts might only be tradable after the index rebounded. At that point, the profits earned would certainly be greatly reduced.

Janette saw Simon fall into thought again and didn't disturb him.

After a moment of consideration, Simon finally said, "Let's not worry about this for now. We'll talk after 'Pulp Fiction' wraps".

According to the plan, 'Pulp Fiction' was set to wrap in mid-September, giving Simon another half month for operations.

Moreover, the film business was the most important thing for Simon.

To accumulate vast wealth and avoid being treated as a 'fat sheep,' Simon needed to possess considerable power.

Hollywood, precisely, was the foundation of power Simon had chosen.

If he could gradually bring this globally influential film industry base under his control, combined with the immense wealth he accumulated, Simon could truly shed his 'fat sheep' identity and become a major player capable of influencing this country and even the entire world.

Janette, hearing Simon say this, was somewhat puzzled: "We could just withdraw all the money from the futures account, couldn't we? Then Noah could go cry in a corner".

"No, we can't," Simon shook his head and chuckled, "Doing that now would be tantamount to telling them we're planning to switch futures brokers. Wall Street isn't that big; do you think Lehman Brothers wouldn't be able to find out which firm we opened an account with?"

Janette thought about it and said helplessly, "It seems that's really the case".

...Unknowingly, another weekend quickly passed.

Time flew by, and it was already September.

Over the two-day weekend, under the personal arrangement of James Robinson, CEO of American Express, Lehman Brothers raised $500 million in one go, intending to secretly follow Westeros Company's operations.

However, to Noah Scott's surprise, compared to the heavy position operations of the previous three times, Simon, in the new week, only gradually asked him to establish 6,000 short contracts between 337 and 330 points, and these were December short contracts.

The shift from long to short positions was indeed within Noah Scott's expectations.

However, the short position of 6,000 contracts only utilized 30% of the funds in Westeros Company's account, far lower than the previously maintained 80% position ratio. The several managers who had originally gathered a large amount of capital, intending to follow Simon's risky operations, were completely bewildered.

A 30% position ratio is a very conservative long-term holding strategy.

The entire Wall Street understood at this time that after a five-year bull market, the North American stock market would inevitably enter a downturn. Therefore, Westeros Company's current position resembled a winding-down act, aiming to scoop up as much profit as possible after having already had their fill.

Could it be...

Had the feast already ended just as they were about to enter?

If they couldn't achieve huge profits in the short term, American Express certainly couldn't keep a massive $500 million sum in a futures account for an extended period.

Noah Scott even suspected at one point that Simon had detected his covert operations, which was why he was acting this way. But that didn't make sense. If Simon had detected Lehman Brothers' intention to follow, he would have switched brokers.

There was no reason to leave money on the table that could be earned.

Amidst this indecision, the first week of September had not yet ended when the North American stock market took a sharp downturn. In the following week, the S&P 500 index plummeted from above 330 points to around 310 points.

Still a 20-point drop.

With a contract multiplier of $500, the profit or loss for a single contract reached $10,000.

Thus, in just one week, Westeros Company's 6,000 short contracts had a paper profit exceeding $60 million.

However, the paper profits in Lehman Brothers' account were even more substantial. Noah Scott had established positions at twice the scale of Westeros Company. After Simon stopped building positions, he couldn't resist buying an additional 3,000 contracts, bringing Lehman Brothers' short contract holdings to 15,000.

In just one week, the paper profit in Lehman Brothers' account exceeded $150 million.

However.

This time, Simon did not issue a sell order.

Compared to Simon's unwavering composure, the Scott father and son, who were personally responsible for this operation, were completely unable to remain calm.

$150 million in profit! This was roughly equivalent to the entire American Express Company's quarterly net profit. And most importantly, as the direct project managers and traders, such a profit also meant they would receive a huge year-end bonus.

Furthermore, it would have been fine if the S&P 500 index had continued to decline, but as the third Thursday of September, the last settlement day, approached, the previously plummeting S&P 500 index began to rise again.

Lehman Brothers' 15,000 contracts meant that every 1-point fluctuation in the S&P 500 index represented a profit or loss of $7.5 million.

So, as the S&P 500 index gradually recovered from 310 points, and watching $7.5 million disappear one by one, when the S&P 500 index rose back to a high of 320 points, Simon still had not issued any trading instructions. Including American Express CEO James Robinson, all senior executives of American Express aware of this operation could no longer remain calm, and Noah Scott finally began to close positions.

But the S&P 500 index's rally still didn't stop.

When Lehman Brothers hastily completed the liquidation of 15,000 contracts, the S&P 500 index had already risen back to 326 points. Of the original profit of over $150 million, Lehman Brothers ultimately brought back only $56 million.

$56 million, this was clearly a very substantial return, but compared to the initial paper profit of $150 million, it was ultimately significantly reduced.

Then, events unfolded again, beyond the expectations of the American Express team.

On September 17th, the third stock index futures delivery day of 1987, the S&P 500 index surged to 328 points, but then, instead of continuing to rise, it began to fall again.

Excluding the subsequent weekend, in just three trading days, like a roller coaster, the S&P 500 index once again fell from a high of 328 points to 313 points.

At this time.

In Westeros Company's account, the 6,000 contracts remained unmoved, and the cumulative paper profit once again approached $60 million.

Facing this situation, Noah Scott, Nielsen Scott, and even James Robinson felt completely at a loss.

What exactly happened?

Was that kid doing it on purpose?

What would he do next?

Should they continue to follow now?

Los Angeles.

Unlike the roller coaster of emotions experienced by Noah Scott and others, Simon, who had already anticipated the drastic fluctuations in September, had spent most of his time during this period, apart from daily reports on index fluctuations from Chicago, fully immersed in the final filming of 'Pulp Fiction'.

Finally, on Saturday, September 19th.

As only a few final shots remained, the crew chose to work overtime on the weekend, and then, that afternoon, the second film directed by Simon since his return to this era officially wrapped up.

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