I thought for a long while.
"What should we do about this?"
"What's there to hesitate about? It's not illegal."
"That's true, but…"
Exploiting an order error to acquire stock isn't illegal. However, it was clearly morally questionable.
I muttered, "Profiting from someone else's hardship isn't the right thing for a person to do."
At my words, Taekgyu wore an incredulous expression.
"Wow! Says the guy who made a killing off the UK during Brexit?"
"…Exactly."
I even hit the Japanese foreign exchange market back then too. Made quite a bit betting on the yen strengthening.
Perhaps because of that, my reputation in Japan isn't great. Though they seem to like things like the Lost Fantasy concert.
What made me uncomfortable was that the money belonged to the retirement funds of the Japanese people. Besides the money itself, what kind of impact would this have down the line?
"Regardless, if the order error happens, someone else will buy the shares if we don't, right?"
"That's true."
Breaking news flashed across the muted TV screen.
[(Breaking News) Japanese Ambassador to South Korea Tanokura Matsuhiro and Consul General in Busan Morimoto Narushi Temporarily Recalled to Japan]
"Wait a minute."
I turned up the TV volume with the remote.
Japan had recalled its ambassador and consul general in protest over the issues of renegotiating the comfort women agreement and the forced labor rulings.
Foreign Minister Okamoto Takeo firmly stated that the ambassador would not return until the South Korean government took appropriate measures.
As if on cue, inflammatory remarks poured out from cabinet ministers and LDP lawmakers.
"We must immediately take this to international arbitration and shame South Korea."
"If we compensate them now, they'll obviously come back begging for more money later."
"South Korea should not be granted any preferential treatment."
"The comfort women were professional prostitutes. They sold their bodies voluntarily to make a living, and some earned more than generals. This fact must be made clear to the international community."
"Not a single yen should be given."
There was even talk of using this opportunity to consider severing diplomatic ties with South Korea.
Next, Prime Minister Okazaki appeared on screen. He spoke in an even harsher tone:
"Japan expresses grave concern over the violation of the Comfort Women Agreement and the Korea-Japan Claims Agreement. These are agreements between nations, and violating them is a breach of international law. We strongly protest this to the South Korean side and will work with the international community towards a resolution."
The screen changed, now showing footage of a Zaitokukai protest. They marched through the streets of Shin-Okubo, waving Rising Sun flags.
They held several signs.
My name, written in Hanja, was easily recognizable.
"What do those say?"
Taekgyu glanced over and said,
"Something like 'Kang Jin-hoo is a murderer. Bring back Masao. Joseonjin get out. Comfort women are whores…' Damn, these sons of bitches."
Taekgyu said angrily, "Seeing those bastards acting like that, do you still need to hesitate?"
If the opponent were a small nation, maybe, but Japan is the world's third-largest economy. Taking a slice won't even leave a mark on them. In fact, considering how much Korea has been exploited, you could say this is getting off easy.
A mouse worrying about the cat isn't going to earn its gratitude.
You have to seize opportunities when they arise. And buying low and selling high is fundamental to business.
Money has no blood or tears, neither good nor evil. Money is just money.
From the moment oracle's prediction appeared, our course was pretty much set.
Looking at Prime Minister Okazaki on the screen again, I said,
"If they're selling cheap, we ought to buy."
***
We began planning in earnest.
Thanks to oracle, we knew an order error would occur. The crucial part was the timing. So, when exactly would it happen?
Taekgyu said,
"Can't we just place a buy order and wait?"
Place a standing buy order for 14.97 million Toyota shares at 1 yen each?
Actually, I had briefly considered that too. But there was one problem.
"Do we need to advertise that we have foresight?"
Taekgyu nodded in understanding.
"True, it would look like we knew the order error was coming."
"Well, in this case, they'd be more likely to suspect collusion with an insider than foresight, but still."
Either way, we had to avoid suspicious circumstances as much as possible. Therefore, placing a buy order in advance was out of the question.
"We have to react in real time."
"To do that, wouldn't we need to know the approximate timing at least?"
That was precisely the problem.
We couldn't just sit around indefinitely, like waiting under a persimmon tree for fruit to fall. We couldn't stare at a monitor all day for days or months waiting for the error to occur.
Delegating it was also impossible. Could we really tell someone, 'An order error is coming soon, so be ready to buy 14.97 million shares at 1 yen each'?
"Any ideas?"
"I'm going to figure something out now."
I looked up data on GPIF's domestic Japanese stock investments. Japan also has laws requiring disclosure when acquiring shares above a certain threshold.
A quick look at their website easily confirmed which stocks GPIF held and in what quantity. Currently, their Toyota holding was 15.21 million shares.
"And they sell 14.97 million of those shares all at once?"
I thought while looking at the data.
"Unless they're crazy—no, unless it's a mistake—selling 14.97 million shares at once makes no sense."
GPIF wouldn't sell all its Toyota stock, and even if it decided to, it would never dump it all in one go. To sell a block worth 2.3 trillion yen without tanking the stock price, they'd have to sell gradually over several months at least. Or arrange a block deal.
In other words, we had to assume they mistakenly sold their entire holding at once. Both the 1 yen price and the 14.97 million share quantity had to be mistakes stemming from that initial error.
"If they were mistakenly selling their entire current holding at once, we should be able to buy over 15.2 million shares. So why does the prediction specify only 14.97 million? If buying more were possible, we would."
Taekgyu caught on immediately.
"So you're saying they mistakenly sell their entire holding at that future point, and the total holding then will be around 14.97 million shares?"
"Exactly. Because by that time, GPIF's holding of Toyota stock will be less than 15 million shares."
Meaning, by closely monitoring GPIF's declared Toyota holdings and Nishida Securities' sell-off volume, we could estimate the approximate timing.
"We can make our move around then, can't we?"
***
December 31st.
Deliveries began for CarOS's first electric vehicles, the AD3 and AD4 – the EVs with the most advanced autonomous driving technology available and the longest range.
Buyers expressed their satisfaction.
Japan was still raising a fuss, demanding the truth about Yoshizawa Masaru's death, but it didn't affect US sales, and there were no cancellations. The waitlist for new orders was now at least six months long.
A day later, the calendar turned over, and a hopeful new year dawned.
Even amid economic difficulties, people tend to hope for good things in the new year. We held our company's kick-off meeting and started the year's work.
Relations between South Korea and Japan remained icy. High-level economic talks were postponed indefinitely, and various civilian exchange events were put on hold. The ambassador and consul general recalled to Japan had not returned to South Korea.
Japan kept up intense pressure on the South Korean government day after day.
"Why on earth is Japan making such a fuss?"
"It's because South Korea's influence has grown that much."
If we weren't worth their attention, they would have just ignored it. Such a strong reaction indicated they were taking this matter very seriously.
The international community is a bit like the world of gangsters; you need power to demand reparations. Look at Germany, often cited as a model for atoning for war crimes. They profusely compensated and apologized to Israel and related parties for the Holocaust, but remained silent about the Romani genocide. The same applied to their colonial rule in Namibia.
Most importantly, what emboldened the Japanese political establishment were the approval ratings.
Since this issue erupted, various other scandals had conveniently faded away, and Prime Minister Okazaki's approval rating had jumped by over 10 percent.
For New Year's, I arranged to have dinner at Hyunjoo noona's place. Ellie joined us too, and we all clinked wine glasses. As dinner was winding down, I casually mentioned,
"I'm thinking of buying some Toyota stock."
Hyunjoo noona pushed up her glasses and asked,
"How much?"
"I'm thinking around 3 percent for now. Might be more."
"Planning to challenge management control?"
Unlike the complex web of circular shareholdings in Korean chaebol groups, Toyota's governance structure was relatively straightforward.
As we'd planned, Taekgyu gave a vague answer:
"Just trying to shake up the Auto Alliance a bit. They keep stirring up trouble over there; we can't just sit back, can we?"
***
After Prime Minister Okazaki took office, GPIF's Chief Investment Officer (CIO) was replaced with Namiki Koji.
Aligning with Okazaki's policies of fiscal stimulus and expanded investment, he directed the fund towards more aggressive investment strategies.
An individual investor can freely buy any stock they think will rise, even going all-in on a single name. However, large funds and pension funds must invest according to established principles and regulations. No matter how strongly they predict a particular stock will soar, they cannot hold more than a specific allocated percentage.
Currently, within GPIF's domestic Japanese stock portfolio, the allocation to automotive stocks was the largest, and within that sector, Toyota held the highest weighting.
While somewhat expected for the largest company by market cap, this position had already exceeded regulatory limits. That might be overlooked while the stock was rising, but if it started to fall, being over the limit would become a serious problem.
With CarOS's new cars selling like hotcakes, Toyota's and Honda's sales in the US were declining. This would inevitably be reflected in their stock prices. Wouldn't they try to reduce their overweight Toyota position before the first-quarter sales figures were announced?
Sure enough, as anticipated, GPIF began selling off Toyota stock. Sell orders were periodically issued through Nishida Securities.
And finally, GPIF's declared Toyota holding dipped below 15 million shares.
"Time to get ready to move."
I cancelled all my appointments, went to work early, and waited for the market to open. I didn't leave the CEO's office until the market closed.
I delegated all important meetings to Sang-yeop sunbae.
I had everything pre-set, numbers entered, ready to execute the buy order with a single keystroke. I couldn't afford to miss the moment, not even by a second.
The Korean stock market opens at 9:00 AM and closes at 3:30 PM, with continuous trading. In contrast, the Japanese market has a one-hour lunch break. The morning session runs from 9:00 AM to 11:30 AM, and the afternoon session runs from 12:30 PM to 3:00 PM.
As the clock hit 11:30 AM, the morning session closed. I let out a sigh and stood up. On the table were the jajangmyeon and jjamppong Taekgyu had ordered.
It was a relief to have at least an hour to catch my breath.
I sat on the sofa and ate the jajangmyeon. Staring intently at the monitor all morning made my eyes feel strained.
"Drink some water."
"No thanks. Better not to if I want fewer bathroom breaks later."
Taekgyu nodded.
"Hah. Hydration only weighs the body down."
"…"
What kind of nonsense was that?
***
A week passed.
As of yesterday, GPIF's declared Toyota holding had dropped to 14.98 million shares. At this rate, wouldn't it fall below 14.97 million in another day or two?
Or would they start buying again? When exactly would the error happen? I hadn't missed anything, had I?
"Jin-hoo!"
Snapped back to reality by the call, I saw Ellie looking at me with her brown eyes.
She was staring intently at my face.
"Were you listening to me?"
"Huh? Sorry, what did you say?"
At my response, Ellie pouted.
"What's been wrong with you these past few days? If you keep zoning out like this, I'm going to get mad."
"Ah, I'm sorry."
I'd been so preoccupied I hadn't slept properly for days. I was worried that when the opportunity finally arrived, I might somehow mess it up.
"Is it because of Japan?"
Her words startled me.
"Huh?"
Had I mentioned the prediction without realizing it?
While I was wondering, Ellie continued,
"I heard Japanese politicians officially requested data from CarOS, right? Something about needing to uncover the truth of Masaru's death."
"Ah…"
"Try not to worry too much about it. The accident wasn't your fault, Jin-hoo."
"R-right."
Ellie cupped my face with both hands, bringing her face close to mine.
"Don't push yourself too hard. Your health comes first, okay?"
I managed a smile.
"Okay."