Using Pattern Recognition, Chen Wei analyzed Elder Mo's behavior over years of sect records. The elder always requested pills from the same alchemist—Master Shen, whose success rate with perfect-grade pills was 23% higher than other sect alchemists.
Master Shen produced pills in monthly batches. His next batch of Foundation Establishment Pills would be ready in two weeks, perfectly timed for the Championship results.
Chen Wei calculated the probability chains:
• Elder Mo would visit Master Shen: 96%
• He would request a perfect-grade pill: 87%
• Master Shen would have one available: 71%
• The pill would go to Liu Yan if he won: 94%
Combined probability: 59%
Not good enough. Chen Wei needed certainty.
So he introduced new variables. He "accidentally" let slip to Master Shen's assistant that Elder Mo had praised the alchemist's work. He ensured Master Shen's favorite tea was always stocked. He made the alchemist's life incrementally better in invisible ways.
Gratitude, Chen Wei had learned, was its own form of causality. Master Shen would feel obligated to perform his best work when Elder Mo made his request.
Perfect-grade pill probability increased to 91%.
Better. Chen Wei could work with that.