Chapter 271: Open Plot vs. Open Plot
"In all scenarios—the opponent's intent is paramount," Egger said. "Why don't we first consider why Prince Doran Martell is doing this thankless task? After you led the Northern army out of the theater of war, did the Dornish forces likewise depart as agreed?"
"To my knowledge, yes."
Egger propped his chin in his hand, mused for a moment, and then looked up again. "I do not know Doran Martell well, but I have some rapport with his brother... Judging by Oberyn's attitude when mentioning his elder brother, the actual ruler of Dorne is no fool. He must have a reason for this. We would do best to review the campaign and try to find the Prince's true intent within it."
"Very well." Robb had been agonizing over this for a month but had never thought of it from this angle. Intrigued by Egger's way of thinking and wanting to see what the man could analyze, he followed along and began to review: "When King Stannis marched south, he sent a summons to Dorne, though he received no reply or response at the time. It wasn't until the critical moment when the Crown's loyalist army arrived and surrounded Storm's End that the Dornish suddenly emerged from the south... Totally ignoring the King's stern commands, they moved their forces—without declaring war but with clear hostility—close to the flank of the royal army, making it impossible for Stannis to focus on the siege. While this was happening, the Northern army was west of Storm's End, blocking the Reach's reinforcements. After some fighting, we were deadlocked—and then, I received the letter from Prince Doran."
Robb paused to take a drink of water before continuing: "There is no doubt the Dornish did not want King Stannis to defeat the rebels and retake Storm's End... but what is baffling is that they did not follow Aegon Targaryen's instructions either. After the Northern army withdrew and the King pulled back from Storm's End, the Golden Company and their hired or newly formed sellsword companies struck toward King's Landing. Yet, at this optimal moment for an offensive, the Dornish army turned back for home. With the Reach's forces also heavily damaged and unable to coordinate, Young Aegon's attempt to expand his sphere of influence was thwarted. Except for Storm's End and a small portion of castles and villages to its south still under their control, the King remains in command of most of the Stormlands and the entire Crownlands."
Before the narrative was even finished, Robb realized the advantage of Egger's perspective. By looking at the Battle of Storm's End from the outside, he quickly discovered a blind spot in his previous solo contemplations. "Though the Reach still has strength, the repeatedly defeated House Tyrell lacks the prestige to fully utilize it. The West is still watching, but because the Kingslayer killed the Mad King, they will never stand under the dragon banner... and Dorne never truly committed to the fight. Without aid, no matter if that Aegon Targaryen is real or fake, he hasn't a half-penny's chance of winning!"
"Excellent—see, we've reached our first consensus so quickly: the rebels have no chance," Egger agreed. "But in that case, Dorne didn't just meddle; they participated half-heartedly... What exactly is it they want?"
"I am curious about that as well."
"We can't find out by just thinking. Let's use the same method and stop overtaxing our brains... let's look at what the Dornish gained from this war." Egger straightened up, resting his arms on the desk where Eddard Stark once sat. "Without losing a single soldier, merely by taking a march through the Stormlands, Dorne prevented a battle-hardened King from retaking the castle where he grew up. With a piece of paper and a spoonful of ink, they made the most formidable fighting force in the Seven Kingdoms—the Northern army—go home according to their wishes. The one who devised these strategies is a master, but what did Dorne get out of this series of operations?"
"What did they get?" Robb made no effort to hide his confusion, saying hesitantly, "I feel... they seem to have gained nothing?"
"It's not 'seem'—they gained nothing. They even had to bear the cost of wages and provisions. Only a fool would do something that harms others without benefiting themselves, but we established at the start that Prince Doran is no fool." Egger rambled for a few minutes to stall, carefully recalling the original plot points from his past life. He now had a rough idea and could reveal the answer. "After eliminating a series of possibilities, only one answer remains: House Martell wasn't looking to gain anything; they deployed their troops to prevent themselves from losing something."
Lose what? Robb understood less and less. He thought for a moment, and since he had already asked for advice, he cast aside his facade as the Warden of the North and played the part of a humble student. "It's true Dorne supported the Targaryens during the Usurper's War, but that was long ago. King Stannis is often questioned for being overly impartial, but he is not so paranoid that, once secure on the throne, he would settle scores from decades ago to the point of purging House Martell. What are they afraid of losing?"
"The environment," Egger uttered a single word. "More accurately, a chaotic environment. Dorne's overall strength is in the lower tier of the Seven Kingdoms; they lack the power to shake all of Westeros in normal times. If they hadn't deployed troops this time, King Stannis would have taken Storm's End, expelled or destroyed the Golden Company, and then combined the strength of four regions to force the Reach to submit or even change its leadership, restoring Westeros to the unified state of King Robert's era... Once the King is secure on the Iron Throne, Dorne would have no choice but to bend the knee. They must have an agenda; they don't want to see the Seven Kingdoms return to a 'status quo,' so they stirred the waters at the critical moment."
"Aegon Targaryen is Prince Doran's nephew. To prove his identity is real, as long as Dorne supports him, he would surely grant Dorne preferential treatment once he takes the throne... What could be more profitable than putting one's own nephew on the throne?"
"Something more profitable than putting one's own nephew on the throne—good question." Egger countered, "You tell me?"
"House Martell claiming the crown themselves?" After several seconds of silence, Robb made a hesitant guess. "But the Targaryen blood in this generation of Martells is so thin it's negligible. Their place in the line of succession is buried somewhere at the very end... No matter which kingdom's inheritance law you follow, it wouldn't be the Dornishmen's turn to sit on the Iron Throne."
"House Martell itself has no right to touch the Iron Throne, but what if a member of House Martell—marries the last Targaryen?"
"The last Targaryen?" Robb's expression jolted. There were two Targaryens in the public eye; only one lacked the equipment to be the groom, and she happened to be the one whose "identity is beyond doubt." He immediately understood Egger's point: "I see. They want to keep Westeros in a state of chaos, weakening the power of potential wartime rivals... waiting for Daenerys Targaryen to return from across the Narrow Sea to marry her. Then, by virtue of being her husband, they gain the right to reach for the Iron Throne!"
Once this guess was out, all previous confusion vanished, and Robb felt a sudden sense of clarity. "No wonder! Dorne has refused to truly commit to the war from start to finish, refusing even to publicly recognize Aegon Targaryen's identity. Yet they not only sent troops to stop Stannis from retaking Storm's End but also wrote to me demanding a deal—they want Stannis off the throne while keeping their own strength intact! Once House Martell marries Daenerys Targaryen and publicly denies the authenticity of Aegon Targaryen's claim, the ones most qualified to claim the Iron Throne will be the Dornish!"
"Exactly. This is the most likely scenario I can think of that explains everything." Deriving a conclusion from such sparse clues required a terrifyingly powerful leap in logic... Even Egger didn't think he had that kind of brain, but since he remembered the plot and characters, knowing the result made fabricating a process of deduction much simpler.
The confusion on Robb's face had faded, replaced by shock. "I must inform King Stannis of this suspicion. I cannot let Dorne sit back and reap the rewards so easily!"
"You can't let Dorne reap the rewards... that's an understandable gut reaction, but what do you intend to do? Furthermore, how do you explain to the King the basis on which you guessed the Martells' intent? Even if he knows, how can he respond? Surely not by actively declaring war on Dorne?"
"This—" Robb was momentarily speechless, his shock turning back into a dilemma. He had only heard rumors of Egger's cleverness before, but after experiencing it firsthand, he no longer had any doubts. He looked at Egger again with an inquiring gaze. "Does that mean even if I know the Dornishmen's true intent, I still can't do anything?"
"I cannot give you a direct conclusion; that depends on you." Egger shrugged. Having finished his display of brilliance, he had to guide the situation in a direction favorable to himself. "Prince Doran has already shown his hand through his actions. I have no doubt that if the Northern army marches south again, Dorne will move north in opposition. Their desire to preserve their strength is real, but if necessary, they would likely join the fray without hesitation. So, how to proceed must be decided by the answers to the following questions."
Egger swallowed. Seeing this, Robb picked up the pitcher on the desk and poured a cup for the Watchman as well. Egger thanked him and took an unceremonious sip. "If the North and Dorne both join the war, and both the King and the rebels gain fresh reinforcements, does the King's advantage grow or shrink? In other words: do you have the confidence to reassemble a force stronger than the Dornish army? If you can, how do you guarantee that during your absence, the North will not be threatened by outside forces again? Whether it's the new Lord of the Iron Islands or the White Walkers beyond the Wall, neither is an easy opponent to handle."
Two is double of one, but three is only 1.5 times two... it's a simple mathematical principle: when both sides gain new reinforcements, the stronger side's advantage does not necessarily expand.
Of course, war is not simple arithmetic.
Robb did not answer immediately but lowered his head in deep thought.
Those who survive in harsh environments are often the most resilient, which is one major reason why Northern soldiers are considered the best in the Seven Kingdoms. But Dorne is no garden either. Though Robb had never been there, he knew enough from hearsay to have an idea of the land: rocky, mountainous, arid, and barren—none of them pleasant words. It was a place the Targaryens couldn't conquer even with dragons and had to resort to marriage to win; even a Northman would not underestimate it.
To Egger's first question, Robb's answer was no.
How the overall strength of the North and Dorne compared, no one could say for sure. One would have to fight a war side-by-side to find out. But the primary battlefield of this war, the Stormlands, was right at Dorne's doorstep and a thousand miles away from the North... Factor in that the North had already fought rounds with the West and the Reach...
The Reach's size is truly staggering, and the other half of Westeros that opposed it was not without the power to strike back. A confrontation between two titans fighting for the crown simply cannot be decided in a short time. Returning to the war and dragging Dorne into the mud just as winter approaches would only make the balance of power more even. Aside from increasing the capital for mutual attrition, it held little practical meaning.
Moreover, the taste of being a thousand miles from home only to nearly have his nest snatched away was an experience Robb had enough of once. He truly did not want a repeat.
The answer was actually quite obvious, but Robb truly hated this feeling of being forced to act according to the enemy's wishes. "Is there no way to break the deadlock?"
"There is—one of the two sides achieving a decisive victory. For instance, if King Stannis captures or kills Aegon Targaryen... or vice versa, the war will end quickly. Aside from that, the only way is to get the West to switch sides again." Egger replied quickly without thinking. "As for breaking House Martell's plan of 'watching the tigers fight from the mountain,' that is difficult! The hallmark of an 'open plot' is that it doesn't fear being seen through. Even if Prince Doran publicly announced his plan to King Stannis and Aegon Targaryen, those two could only continue to bash each other's heads in; they have no other choice."
Stannis's leadership and conduct were cautious and veteran, and he had a keen eye for character; even if he lost, he was unlikely to fall into a fatal trap... and that so-called Aegon Targaryen was under the airtight protection of the Golden Company and had barely made public appearances since landing in Westeros. Expecting something to happen to these two key figures to end the war was difficult. As for how to get House Lannister to switch sides... Robb, who had just returned home with massive amounts of gold looted from the West, didn't even dare think about it.
Egger had used a deductive method to analyze the situation and interests clearly enough; Robb did not ask him for advice on the final decision.
He gritted his teeth and struck the desk with a look of resentment. "Then I can only continue to proclaim support for King Stannis to appease the Riverlands and the Vale, while refraining from sending troops. I will build my strength in the North and wait for the optimal moment to intervene."
"Good idea, and you happen to have an excellent reason right in front of you." Egger nodded and smiled. "Upon returning to the North, you immediately headed to the Wall to inspect the situation, only to find that the threat posed by the army of the dead is too great to ignore. Therefore, you decided to stay and hold the North, ceasing any large-scale deployments to the south until the threat of the wights is resolved."
Robb raised an eyebrow. "That is indeed a good idea..."
"There's more. I suspect that in Prince Doran's secret letter to you, he only requested that your army withdraw from the theater of war, but didn't mention that the North had to withdraw from the war itself?"
"He did not."
"Then things are much simpler. We counter an open plot with an open plot: stay home, spend the winter well, build our spirits, and prepare for Daenerys Targaryen's return. Meanwhile, to appease the Vale and the Riverlands and show loyalty to the King—aside from not leading a grand host south, you should have the entire North operating overtly to provide war supplies and every other form of support possible to your allies. One can imagine that Dorne and the Reach will support the rebels represented by the Golden Company in a similar fashion... but the three parties on the other side, each with their own agendas, will never be able to cooperate as smoothly and seamlessly as long-term allies like the four Northern territories."
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