Chapter 464: Persuasion
For now, Franz chose to take Ferdinand's words seriously, but the idea of Austria-Hungary protecting East Africa was not something he could agree to lightly—not even if East Africa had sent his own brother.
"Population doesn't equate to national strength. Even if East Africa has plenty of land, that doesn't change the fact it's still a small country," Franz said. Objectively, there was nothing wrong with this statement. In the current global order, population and landmass alone didn't make a great power. If they did, then the Far East or India would top the list.
Franz's understanding of East Africa's territory was still outdated. Even with East Africa's constant expansion over the years, it likely only reached around 3 million square kilometers—at most. That was the stereotype. In Franz's mind, Africa still had other players—Portugal, Britain, France. These powers wouldn't just let East Africa take everything. Besides, no matter how disorganized the natives were, it would still take time for East Africa to absorb them. After all, even the U.S. took decades to wipe out the Native Americans, and they were still pushing into the western frontier.
"Overall, East Africa isn't a strong country, and its geographic position isn't especially important. But strategically, East Africa is crucial for Austria-Hungary!" said Ferdinand. "Our navy is confined to the Mediterranean—specifically, the eastern portion. The Suez Canal connects the Med to the Indian Ocean, but it's controlled by Britain and France. That's a strategic dilemma for us. Now, look at a map—East Africa lies south of Suez, Austria-Hungary lies north. If our navies coordinate, do you realize what that means?"
It meant a pincer grip on the Suez Canal by the two navies—essentially, partial control of one of the world's most critical chokepoints. But did East Africa's navy have that capability?
Surprisingly, yes—at least on paper. While outsiders might be unclear on East Africa's naval strength, Austria-Hungary knew it well. After all, most of East Africa's naval orders came from Austria. In fact, in terms of raw numbers, East Africa's navy was already the closest rival to Austria-Hungary's.
Currently, East Africa had three active ironclads—still far fewer than Austria-Hungary—but three more were under construction, and one had entered the design phase. East Africa had also just ordered a 7,500-ton top-tier ironclad. By this time next year, they would have six. By 1880, East Africa would have a fleet comparable in scale to Austria-Hungary's in the Indian Ocean.
Austria's navy had ten ironclads, including two captured from Italy. Thanks to East African orders, it had recently started building two more, bringing the total to twelve by next year. By 1880, Austria-Hungary's navy might stabilize around fifteen ironclads.
Even if East Africa hit nine ironclads by 1880—including the Friedrich—it wouldn't surpass Austria. But Austria's navy was aging; seven of its ironclads predated the Battle of Lissa.
Still, while East Africa had decent hardware, its naval core was lacking—no mature training system, few experienced sailors, and a severe shortage of senior officers. Austria had helped, but most of the officers it sent were unwanted rookies with no battle experience. As for Ferdinand, he was an excellent naval architect—but no one knew how well he could command in war.
So, East Africa's real combat strength remained a mystery. Massive equipment investment had made it flashy—on paper, it resembled the Beiyang Fleet in all its impressive glory.
"Indeed, East Africa's naval growth has been impressive. Even I feel a bit envious," Franz admitted. "In naval terms, East Africa has enough muscle to cooperate with our fleet."
Even Franz had to concede the Hechingen royal family was incredibly wealthy—and willing to spend. Only the Royal Navy might still outmatch East Africa's navy.
Originally, Austria-Hungary hoped to sell its old ships to East Africa and use the proceeds to build new ones. But East Africa had all the power in the buyer's market, and Ernst had no interest in second-hand "antiques."
To counter the great powers, Ernst poured money into the navy, building from scratch. East Africa's naval quality wasn't great—if its equipment had also been poor, the situation would've been dire. Ernst planned to use these warships for 20–30 years, dragging things into the 20th century—only new ships could achieve that.
He could place orders with Austria-Hungary, Britain, France, Italy—even Germany or Russia. In fact, with a bit more effort, his own shipyards could produce ironclads. Years of investment, coupled with Hechingen Overseas Trading Company contracts, had taught East African yards how to build big ships. The Bagamoyo shipyard was now trialing East Africa's first domestically built ironclad—a modest 2,500-ton vessel.
"But we don't have a strong desire for ocean dominance. Austria-Hungary is naturally ill-suited for sea power. I say this as your brother—I know you won't laugh at me. The Empire has long since given up on European dominance. We lost the German-speaking world. Now, the Empire is like a ship drifting on the sea, and as its helmsman, I no longer know where to steer it. All I can do is calm the sailors and keep the ship moving," said Franz.
Ferdinand had never heard his brother speak so pessimistically. "Franz, you've done well. The Empire's problems began long before your time. Our predecessors never imagined how powerful nationalism would become. The times have left the Empire behind. By the time you took over, it was already too late to change course."
Franz was comforted by this unexpected show of understanding from the brother who once gave him headaches.
Then Ferdinand changed tone: "Which is precisely why the Empire should ally with East Africa—especially Austria. We've compromised too much with Hungary. If other ethnic groups follow Hungary's example, the Empire will inevitably fall apart. And if that happens, the Habsburg family itself will be in danger."
"Would an alliance with East Africa solve that?" Franz asked.
"Of course not," Ferdinand admitted. "But we can help neutralize some of the Empire's internal instability."
He took a sip of tea. "In fact, East Africa has been quietly working on a strategy—to prevent Austria-Hungary from collapsing. It's focused on lowering the independence risk in key regions through strategic immigration."
That caught Franz's interest. East Africa interfering in internal imperial affairs? It sounded like a fantasy.
"There's no official document," Ferdinand said, "but the effects are real. Since the 1873 economic crisis, we've systematically relocated unemployed workers and farmers from Slovenia, Croatia, and Czech regions to East Africa. The goal is to weaken nationalism and its roots in those areas."
"And who was the main culprit behind the Austro-Italian War?" Ferdinand asked.
"Ernst," Franz answered without hesitation.
"Exactly. His goal was to strengthen Austria-Hungary—especially the unity of its people."
"But the Empire took a big risk—and Ernst made a fortune," Franz protested.
"You had the final say, didn't you? You were tempted—and you won your bet. Italy wasn't ready to absorb its own power, France was bogged down by Prussia, and Austria-Hungary regained lost lands. For a moment, it felt like the Empire's glory had returned."
Indeed, the war revived national confidence—proof the old empire still had some fight left.
Ferdinand continued, "Look at this economic crisis. The Hechingen Consortium played a key role in stabilizing the imperial economy. Just their steel orders alone prevented a total collapse."
Franz suddenly realized just how much Ernst had supported them.
"Why Austria-Hungary? Germany is clearly stronger," he asked at last.
That left Ferdinand a bit embarrassed. "Well... you said it yourself—Germany is too strong. That's exactly why East Africa doesn't want to work with them. Partnership requires mutual need—and parity. Germany's government is far too overbearing. A country like that can't be a reassuring partner."
Translation: Austria-Hungary poses no threat to East Africa.
Franz's face darkened. "Drink your tea and get out."
"What about the alliance?" Ferdinand asked.
"I'll let you know."
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