Chapter 136: The Situation in the Far East
The Deputy Foreign Minister of Australia made his point clear: while Australia indeed had ample mineral resources, selling them to the island nation would come at double the price.
That price hike was not to be underestimated. A country's industrial mineral imports could amount to tens of thousands of tons. A twofold price increase would mean costs rising by tens of thousands—or even hundreds of thousands—of pounds.
Koichiro Tozawa had already anticipated that Australia would raise its mineral prices. After all, international relations ultimately came down to interests. Failing to secure national benefit would be no different from treason.
He had considered this long before coming to Australia.
Though mineral prices from Britain, the island nation's ally, weren't very high and were actually somewhat lower than Australia's doubled rates, Britain's supply regions were simply too far away. Once transportation costs were factored in, the final price of British raw materials would far exceed Australia's.
This was especially critical for the island nation, which, as an island, could only rely on maritime transport for materials.
But modern transport ships were not fast. Time, manpower, and financial costs added up to a substantial burden.
Although the island nation had received large financial support from Britain and the United States and now had some capital to work with, their ambitions were far greater. Their flattery of Britain and courtship of the U.S. were strategic moves designed to secure support for a greater purpose: challenging the Russian Empire's dominance in northern East Asia and establishing themselves as the new regional power.
But was the Russian Empire so easily challenged?
If not for Russia's vast size, and for the reluctance of its ally France—who didn't want Russian attention diverted toward Asia—the island nation might not have dared to entertain such ambitions.
Now, however, was the perfect opportunity. The island nation had secured backing from both Britain and the U.S., while Russia's only real support came from Germany, as France was hesitant to endorse Russian expansion in Asia.
Thus, the competition for dominance in East Asia had split into two camps: the challengers—the island nation, backed by Britain and the U.S.—and the defenders—Russia, tentatively supported by Germany.
Russia wanted to maintain its dominance in East Asia. But the island nation, having already risen in power, was determined to claim the status and rights it believed it deserved.
The situation mirrored what was happening in Europe: old empires and rising powers clashing over conflicting interests. War between these two nations seemed inevitable.
Unlike the balanced tensions in Europe, the East Asian power struggle favored the island nation. That's why they would confidently start a war two years later.
Keep in mind, even in 1904, Russia was still among the world's top five powers in terms of size and global influence. The island nation, on the other hand, was merely a newly industrialized state trying to emulate the West.
Although its strength had surpassed declining nations like Italy or Spain, it still seemed unlikely—on paper—that it could challenge a European giant like Russia.
But in reality, Russia's immense size and poor infrastructure, along with France's hesitant attitude, meant Russia had limited strength in East Asia.
The Far East Command had fewer than 100,000 regular troops, scattered across the vast region.
Though nominally regular soldiers, their quality was poor. Equipment was outdated, and conflicts between senior officers and enlisted men were rampant.
This wasn't limited to the Far East. The Russian Empire, like its age, was already in a state of decay.
A failed reform had done little to rejuvenate the country. Had its core territories not been in the industrialized West, Russia's fate might already have mirrored that of another crumbling East Asian power.
While Russia's standing army was massive—over 1.05 million soldiers, with a reserve force of 3.75 million—the troops stationed in the Far East were less than one-tenth of that. Their equipment and logistics lagged far behind those in the west.
With poor training, insufficient supplies, outdated weapons, and deep fractures within the ranks, how much combat power could such an army muster?
If they went to war with a similarly decaying force, the outcome would be uncertain. But against the newly revitalized, modernized island nation, their odds were grim.
Russia's logistical challenge in the Far East was immense. Sailing its fleet through the Arctic Ocean was impossible. Sea routes had to traverse Europe, South Asia, and East Asia to reach Northeast Asia.
That route imposed a heavy logistical burden that Russia simply could not afford.
The only realistic alternative was overland transport—specifically, the railroad.
To that end, Russia had invested heavily in constructing the Trans-Siberian Railway, linking its industrialized western territories with the strategic, ice-free ports of the Far East.
But there was a major problem: the railway had not yet been completed.
This colossal line stretched from Moscow to Vladivostok, claiming the title of the longest railway in the world.
By comparison, Australia's industrial railway—projected to take ten years to build—was just over 2,000 kilometers long.
The Trans-Siberian Railway, on the other hand, spanned the entirety of the Russian Empire, with a staggering length of 9,288 kilometers—more than four times longer than Australia's project.
The initial opening was scheduled for July 1904. But by the time it became fully operational, the Russo-Japanese War was already over.
As a result, the massive railway that had consumed such an enormous investment from the Russian Empire made little impact on the war effort before the conflict ended.
That war had a lasting impact on Russia: it lost substantial influence in the Far East, and domestic dissatisfaction with the regime only deepened.
It could be argued that the revolution which erupted during World War I was, in part, seeded by the failure of this earlier war.
In any case, the conflict marked the official rise of the island nation—and the beginning of Russia's decline.
(End of Chapter)
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