Cao Haichuan took out his cigarette case again and once more realized he couldn't smoke.
Feeling a bit restless, he simply stood up, went to the big screen, and pointed at the information on the screen to continue his explanation.
"Previously, we analyzed that the initial state of the iron block mechanism is at a certain distance from his head.
"Wei Xinjian actually has a two-shot margin for error. Even if he chooses to shoot innocents with these two shots, it wouldn't cause him any harm.
"In other words, this initial mechanism design gives him a false sense of security.
"Compared to the iron block that hasn't yet gripped his head, a gun with a 1/6 chance of a fatal shot is clearly more terrifying.
"That was the first shot, and he wasn't fully mentally prepared for 'shooting himself.'
"'What if the first shot is a real bullet? A 1/6 chance isn't that low.' Driven by this thought, he's likely to choose to shoot an innocent with the first shot.
"Conversely, if the iron block was pressed tightly against his head from the start, he might make a more rational choice with that first shot."
Everyone nodded; this detail was indeed not something they had considered before.
Jiang He asked curiously, "Then what about the second and third shots?
"Wouldn't he be more or less mentally prepared to shoot himself by then?
"Moreover, he clearly hesitated during the second shot."
Programmer Cai Zhiyuan spoke, "Officer Cao, I think I understand. Let me explain here.
"Actually, it's still a probability issue.
"The probability of hitting a bullet on the first shot is 1/6, and for the second shot, it's 1/5, and so on.
"If the previous shot was a blank, then the probability of hitting a bullet in each following shot is higher than the previous one.
"So, if he didn't choose to shoot himself with the first shot, he'll fall into regret, just like a sunk cost, which will further affect his judgment.
"This also makes him more hesitant with every shot that follows.
"By the time he points the second shot at himself, under the influence of 'sunk cost,' he would entertain many other thoughts, like how this shot's probability of hitting is higher than the last one, and what if the designer of the game deliberately placed the bullet in the second chamber?
"From a rational perspective, this kind of worry is unfounded and won't help in judging the situation.
"But in a life-and-death decision countdown of 5 minutes, it's inherently difficult for a person to remain rational, and these tiny false pieces of information can easily interfere with his thinking and give him illusions of hope.
"Because if he continues to shoot innocents with the next shot, even if it's a blank, he still won't be harmed.
"The third shot follows the same logic, with the change in sunk costs and probabilities further affecting his decision-making.
"Once he finishes the first three shots, and Wei Xinjian's head gets squeezed by the iron block, he falls into immense regret, but by then, it's obviously too late."
Cao Haichuan nodded approvingly, "That's right, exactly like that.
"You explained the specific probabilities, clearer than my original thought.
"But overall, we share the same view."
But then, Cai Zhiyuan fell into confusion.
"However, even if we don't consider the first three shots and only consider the three shots after, as long as he knows the solution to the Three Door Problem, he should be able to survive.
"Shoot himself on the fourth and fifth shots, and shoot an innocent on the sixth. At most, his head would be squeezed by the mechanism one more time, but it wouldn't necessarily mean death."
Cao Haichuan shook his head slightly, "Firstly, Wei Xinjian might not know the Three Door Problem.
"He might not understand the change in probabilities at all, and the increased probability of a hit on the fourth shot makes him even more reluctant to shoot himself.
"Secondly, the notion that 'the fifth shot is a blank' isn't mercy from the designer but rather a death knell."
Cai Zhiyuan grew even more puzzled, "What do you mean?"
Cao Haichuan pointed at the information on the screen:
"Wei Xinjian hesitated during the fourth shot.
"Why would he hesitate at this point? I think it's a completely different situation from the second shot.
"It's not a probability issue.
"It's that Wei Xinjian had suicidal thoughts."
Everyone was a bit shocked, "Suicidal thoughts?"
Cao Haichuan nodded, "That's correct because by this point, the iron block had already squeezed inward once.
"With fractures in the skull and increased cranial pressure, Wei Xinjian was in extreme pain.
"The pain from the iron block's pressure surpassed the 1/3 bullet threat. He might have had suicidal thoughts to quickly end this pain.
"And what's most interesting is this:
"If he actually did that, he wouldn't die.
"But clearly, that's not what the game's designer wanted to see."
Everyone suddenly realized.
Under such excruciating pain, if Wei Xinjian impulsively shot himself three times, wouldn't he survive?
In that case, he wouldn't survive due to remorse or mercy, but rather because of the despair and irrationality of wanting to commit suicide.
This trial would then be tainted.
Cao Haichuan paused briefly and then continued, "So, the game's designer deliberately inserted a hint here to reignite his survival instinct.
"This ensures the accuracy of this 'trial.'
"Originally, Wei Xinjian needed to bet on two bullets to know the position of the real bullet, but now he only needs to bet on one. In other words, the iron block will move inward at most one more time.
"At this point, he essentially has two choices:
"First is to shoot himself directly, with a 1/3 chance of death; second is to shoot an innocent, with a 2/3 chance that the iron block will move inward by another 1.29cm.
"The 1.29cm squeeze would be very painful, but it won't cause immediate death.
"Under the circumstances where the fifth and sixth bullets can be determined, the survival rate is clearly higher with the second option."
Cai Zhiyuan fully understood now, and he added:
"So, once his survival instinct was reignited, he ultimately chose to shoot the innocent.
"But the game's designer set a trap here.
"There was no real bullet in the gun, meaning Wei Xinjian made a complete misjudgment on the last shot: there was no real bullet, and yet the iron block mechanism would still continue to move.
"Wei Xinjian thought he could kill the innocent with the last shot to escape, but in reality, it declared his own death."
Everyone present fell into silence, needing some time to digest this information.
Li Renshu felt a chill down her spine, "So, this game is intricately connected, and from the moment Wei Xinjian decided to shoot the innocent with his first shot, he was already on a path of no return.
"And his plan to shoot and kill the innocent with the last shot to save himself ultimately turned into a death warrant.
"This is a highly selective game.
"Rational people, selfless people, compassionate people—all of these traits lead to a much higher survival rate.
"And that's why it's called 'Wheel of Redemption.'
"It seems like a roulette of luck, but in reality, it's an examination, a test.
"If Wei Xinjian could change his perspective in such desperate circumstances and cherish the life of an innocent, even if only to shoot himself once, he could survive; his soul could be redeemed.
"But unfortunately… he didn't repent until his death."
The group once again lapsed into a long silence.
It was evident that after their brains had been operating at high speed, both their bodies and minds were starting to feel fatigue.
The death within the game made them feel a severe lack of security.
The combination of these two factors left most people with no desire to continue speaking.
Fu Chen keenly perceived this, "Let's call it a day, shall we? I think it's a good idea for everyone to go and rest.
"Although we don't know what 'New World' is exactly, I've always been one to adapt to circumstances, and I hope you all can do the same.
"No matter what, we are a community with different professions and different identities, and can complement each other in our roles. Whatever problems arise, we can face them together."
Everyone got up and returned to their own rooms.